Wednesday, June 21, 2017

TROPICAL STORM CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 0505 PM EDT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 93.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with a turn toward
the northeast expected on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Cindy will move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern
Louisiana late tonight or early Thursday, then move near or over
extreme eastern Texas, western and northern Louisiana, and
southeastern Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with
weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
oil rigs near the center is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area this afternoon
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE:  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible into tonight from the far
western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 
 


 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system. 
 


CINDY HAS A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS MORE LIKE A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE LOW REMAINS EXPOSED WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 21 2017 0340 PM EDT

Other than Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico the tropics remain quiet for now.  Check back daily for updates from Ralph's Tropical Weather.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net


TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 1213 PM EDT

Other than Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico the tropics remain quiet for now.  Check back daily for your next update from Ralph's Tropical Weather.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net


CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 11:19 AM EDT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 211446
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north-northwest
and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in
strength is expected before landfall, with weakening
expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.  This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday.  Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.

STORM SURGE:  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 
RTW Forecast Maps and Models  

 

NOTE DRY AIR IN THE BROWN COLOR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE OVER OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
 
 

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

CINDY UPDATE JUNE 20, 2017 0522

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 90.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to San Luis
Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Cindy has
been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a
northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue
through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward
the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within
the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE:  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan 
 
 

 

CINDY RAINFALL PROBABILITY DAY-1, 2, 3






WIND GRAPHICS SHOWS CINDY SOUTH OF LOUISIANA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT

THIS GRAPHIC SHOWS CINDY SOUTH OF LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT.  RAINFALL, WIND GUST AND SUSTAIN WINDS.


MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Today June 20, 2017

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind 6 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.


Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.



Wednesday Jun 21

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.


Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.



Thursday Jun 22

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Friday Jun 23

Isolated Storms Day: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Saturday Jun 24

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.



Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Sunday Jun 25

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH.



Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Monday Jun 26

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 





Local Radar

GULF SYSTEM UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...NHC


SATELLITE REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE


SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)

I WANTED TO SEE WHY THERE IS NO CINDY THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WHY NO UPGRADE WITH WIND GUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER OVER 50 MPH.
WELL NOT ONLY DOES THIS SYSTEM HAVE AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION BUT IT HAS DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THIS IS DRYING UP ANY CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) TRYING TO RAP AROUND THE SMALL CIRCULATION CIRCLED ON THESE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. SO UNTIL THEN GUSTY WINDS OFF SHORE AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.

IS THERE STILL A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO CINDY? THAT WOULD ALL DEPEND ON THE DRY AIR AND AS THREE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE CLOCK KEEPS TICKING AND TIME COULD RUN OUT. MY ANIMATED GRAPHICS SHOWS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD FADING OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. 

ALTHOUGH I HAVE SEEN DISORGANIZED SYSTEM REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RTW






TROPICAL UPDATE FOR BRET AND TPC THREE (CINDY) JUNE 20, 2017 11:44 AM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 201433
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat
elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret
produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of
Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity
is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring
only to the north of the center.  The intensity forecast remains
unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward
a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an
upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely
degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not
sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.

Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18
kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this
same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 11.6N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 12.4N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 13.2N  70.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 14.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 14.4N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM BRET
  



000
WTNT43 KNHC 201436
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.

The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 25.9N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  21/0000Z 26.7N  91.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  21/1200Z 27.4N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 28.6N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 30.1N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/1200Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  24/1200Z 37.5N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass
 
  
 
 


TROPICAL UPDATE FOR BRET AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE 20, 2017 0952 AM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200853
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and
Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding
features.  The structure of the cyclone continues to be
characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so
the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the
CDO.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory,
which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB.  The
intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before.  No
significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the
circulation interacts with Venezuela today.  In 24 hours or so, a
weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly
shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea.
The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days.  The
official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity
model consensus, IVCN.

The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now
around 290/18 kt.  There continues to be little change to the track
forecast philosophy.  The flow on the southern side of a
well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on
a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days.
The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS
solutions and is close to the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 10.6N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 11.5N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 12.4N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 13.3N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 13.6N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
BRET

 
000
WTNT43 KNHC 200852
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is
gradually becoming better defined.  However, the system is
struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and
the radius of maximum winds remains large.  Based on this, the
system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.

The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern
portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and
Florida.  The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen
some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a
little more westward.  This would be followed by a northward turn
around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into
the westerlies.  Overall, there has been a left shift of the track
guidance models since the previous advisory.  The new forecast
track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model
consensus, especially at 36-48 h.  Given the nature of the
circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards
extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to
not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory.  Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system.  However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.  One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough.  That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 24.8N  90.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  20/1800Z 25.7N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  21/0600Z 26.6N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 27.5N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 28.9N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 32.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  24/0600Z 36.5N  88.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE(CINDY) 

 
  
 

Monday, June 19, 2017

TROPICAL UPDATE FOR TORPICAL STORM BRET JUNE 19, 2017 1123 PM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud
pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just
to the north of the circulation center.  Earlier microwave imagery
and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the
vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to
the increasing southerly shear.  No change in the current satellite
intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial
intensity remains at 35 kt.  Interaction with the coast of Venezuela
and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough
digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening
trend during the next 24 hours, or so.  The large-scale models
continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in
about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit.  The intensity
forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower
than 6 hours ago.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged
from the previous advisory.  A well-established mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, a more
westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves
within the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 10.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 11.0N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 12.1N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.8N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 13.5N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

 

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE JUNE 19, 2017 1054 PM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud
pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just
to the north of the circulation center.  Earlier microwave imagery
and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the
vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to
the increasing southerly shear.  No change in the current satellite
intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial
intensity remains at 35 kt.  Interaction with the coast of Venezuela
and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough
digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening
trend during the next 24 hours, or so.  The large-scale models
continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in
about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit.  The intensity
forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower
than 6 hours ago.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged
from the previous advisory.  A well-established mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, a more
westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves
within the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 10.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 11.0N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 12.1N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.8N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 13.5N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Roberts