Wednesday, June 21, 2017

CINDY UPDATE JUNE 21, 2017 11:19 AM EDT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 211446
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north-northwest
and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in
strength is expected before landfall, with weakening
expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.  This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday.  Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.

STORM SURGE:  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 
RTW Forecast Maps and Models  

 

NOTE DRY AIR IN THE BROWN COLOR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE OVER OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
 
 

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