Wednesday, July 5, 2017

12z MODEL RUN IS OUT JULY 5, 2017 01:39 PM EDT

RTW:
The 12z model run is out and there is still a leftward bias on most of the tracks.  however, we don't have a well developed system, and its still to far out in the Atlantic to get tight accurate run.

So far this system is struggling with some moderate easterly shear between 36° and 45° west Latitude.  There is also dry air between 40° and 60° west Latitude that this system will have to deal with.  However, the Low seems to be surrounded by its own moisture, so some slow development is possible as this system begins tracking to the west-northwest.  94L has been tracking mainly toward the northwest.

0200 PM EDT UPDATE from NHC
NHC drops probability for development, see below.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW


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