18z MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTESITY MODEL 0302 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

I STILL SEE THE SAME TREND WITH THE MODELS.  THAT UPWARD SLOPE THAT MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IS PROBABLY RELATED TO A STRONG LOW PART OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.  THIS IS WHAT USE TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 / INVEST 92L.  THESE MODELS ARE PROBABLY DEPICTING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH LEFT BEHIND BY THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE HURRICANE CENTER THEY MAY BE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT A STRONG HURRICANE CAN TEND TO BUILD ITS OWN HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH SUCH AS ANDREW DID IN 1992.  THIS WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THIS SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 5-DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ANYWHERE. 

INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES/ NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR IRMA.

INTENSITY MODELS ARE MOST SAYING A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE BUT 1 MODEL IS NOW SUGGESTING A RARE CAT 5.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST ON IRMA...RTW