000 WTNT34 KNHC 191447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized, and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
RTW: Review of the Tropics
1. Not much change with this tropical wave. This system is lacking convection (thunderstorms) and is also struggling to develop.
2. INVEST 92L is still moving through dry air and some westerly shear. There is another upper low to the northwest of 92L that could also interfere with development. Wind shear ahead of 92L a this time is marginal, and dry air is present. Intensity model call for a tropical storm to form from this system. As for the guidance models I have been seeing a trend toward the north and northeast. But a few still take this system toward the west-northwest and Florida. I am not real excited with this system, but I will continue to monitor it...RTW
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