LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN STILL SHOWING SOMETHING COMING UP FROM CARIBBEAN

12Z GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORM BEING PULLED UP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CMC MODEL WHICH IS NOT A GOOD INTENSITY MODEL TENDS TO EXAGGERATE AND TRACKS A HURRICANE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 

I LIKE THE CMC FOR MODEL FOR EARLY WARNING OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS NOT ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO INTENSITY OR GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

RTW