TROPICAL OUTLOOK 0336 PM EDT 10/13/17

1. I WILL POST OPHELIA TRACK MAP AS SOON AS IT IS READY AND WILL POST IT ON THE WEBSITE SITE.  JUST CLICK ON (RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS) AT TOP OF SITE WHERE NAVIGATION BUTTONS ARE LOCATED.  I ALREADY POSTED THE 18Z MODEL RUN THERE. 

2. AS FOR THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MAY BRING FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SQUALLS AS THE WAVES AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT MAY BE DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD SPEED THIS WAVE IS TRAVELING AT. 

THAT ALSO PRODUCES WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HINDERS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

SO FAR NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST.  BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND.
RTW

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