Saturday, June 3, 2017

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 3, 2017 1002 PM EDT

The thunderstorm activity associated with the remnant low of Beatriz have slowly diminished.  The probability of development continues to be 0%.  I will continue monitor but so far models are not suggesting any development with this system at this time.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net


PRECIPTATION FORECAST DAY'S 5-7

Day's 5-7 shows plenty of rain for Florida. We will see!

MONITORING THE REMNANT LOW OF BEATRIZ IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE

Corrections made to below text...

Now that Beatriz remnant low has move into the Bay of Campeche or Southern Gulf, it will be monitored closely for future development.  Upper level winds in the Gulf are presently strong but it seems to be slowly shifting east.  We could see the wind shear maybe relaxing some in the coming week.

Models this morning for the 00Z run suggested a low pressure off the coast of the Florida Big bend.  However, we are seeing the flip flopping going on again during the 12Z run there just rain over Florida in the coming days.  This probably because we don't have a definite organized system to pin point.  So models will continue to cry wolf until a real wolf appears.  I will closely monitor this and other areas during this season God willing...RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

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MORE MODELS ON BOARD WITH A SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF

HERE ARE A FEW MODELS
CANADIAN MODEL (CMC)
 AMERICAN MODEL (GFS)
EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)
 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST



Deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to stream across Florida.  We will see another round of rains developing offshore and moving inland tomorrow and on Sunday.  It will be off and on rain storms, and some slow moving cells will have the potential for producing heavy rainfall that can cause street flooding...RTW  

Today Jun 3, 2017
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  Heat index around 91°F.  Southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 77°F.  East wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday Jun 4
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  East southeast wind to 10 MPH.  Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the Night:  Lows around 79°F.  Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday Jun 5
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 93°F.  South wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  South southwest wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Jun 6
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. Southwest wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Wednesday Jun 7
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southwest wind to 14 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 77°F.  Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday Jun 8
Scattered Storms        Day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. West southwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the night: Lows around 79°F. South southwest wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Jun 9
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southwest wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.







Local Radar

TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

25
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.


NATURES DEADLY VACUUM


 Watch video by clicking on below link! Threehills tornado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLfT6XyWWeU&feature=youtu.be

TROPICAL UPDATE JUN 2, 2017 1100 PM EDT

Reviewed latest satellite image and the deep moisture in the Gulf continues to stream east over Florida.  Expect more rain and storms over the weekend.  It won't be a total washout but there will be times when the slow moving storms will be heavy.  You can't rule out street flooding with those slow moving cells.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

As for the tropics I am still monitoring the Gulf during the next few days.  I am seeing a blow up of storms west of the Yucatan again just like last night.


I also reviewed the models and the Canadian model is up to no good again with development of a storm system northeast of the Yucatan and north of Western Cuba.  I not going to get too excited about this development since this model likes to cry wolf allot.  I will keep monitoring it closely because i don't want any surprises.