Monday, June 19, 2017

TROPICAL UPDATE FOR TORPICAL STORM BRET JUNE 19, 2017 1123 PM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud
pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just
to the north of the circulation center.  Earlier microwave imagery
and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the
vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to
the increasing southerly shear.  No change in the current satellite
intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial
intensity remains at 35 kt.  Interaction with the coast of Venezuela
and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough
digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening
trend during the next 24 hours, or so.  The large-scale models
continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in
about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit.  The intensity
forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower
than 6 hours ago.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged
from the previous advisory.  A well-established mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, a more
westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves
within the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 10.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 11.0N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 12.1N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.8N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 13.5N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

 

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE JUNE 19, 2017 1054 PM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud
pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just
to the north of the circulation center.  Earlier microwave imagery
and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the
vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to
the increasing southerly shear.  No change in the current satellite
intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial
intensity remains at 35 kt.  Interaction with the coast of Venezuela
and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough
digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening
trend during the next 24 hours, or so.  The large-scale models
continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in
about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit.  The intensity
forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower
than 6 hours ago.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged
from the previous advisory.  A well-established mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, a more
westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves
within the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 10.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 11.0N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 12.1N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.8N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 13.5N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19, 2017 1028 PM EDT

Other than BRET and PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) THREE there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation elsewhere.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



BRET TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192042
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

An Air Force WC-130 invest mission this afternoon into the
disturbance was able - after much effort - to find a well-defined
closed circulation.  The location of the center was substantially
farther west than anticipated, as the system is now moving toward
the west-northwest at a very quick 26 kt.  Because the system
has developed a well-defined center, it is now considered a tropical
storm and has been named Bret.

Convection continues to display robust bands on the northwestern
and southeastern quadrants of the disturbance, as seen in the
geostationary satellite and Trinidad radar imagery.  The Hurricane
Hunter mission also found maximum surface winds of about 35 kt,
which agrees with the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB.  These winds
are only occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick
translational velocity of the system.

While the convective structure has been impressive today, it
appears that the window of opportunity for the system to
further develop is closing.  Between interaction with the landmass
of Venezuela and increasing vertical shear beginning in about a day,
the intensity model guidance does not show any significant
intensification.  The official intensity forecast is steady state
for about a day, followed by gradual weakening until dissipation in
about three days. An alternative scenario - given that the
disturbance has tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus
far - is that it could remain south of the forecast track and
dissipate over Venezuela and never reach the Caribbean Sea.

The system is anticipated to slow somewhat, but still move at a
rapid rate toward the west-northwest until dissipation, steered by
strong trade winds south of the Bermuda high.  The official track
forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is
faster compared with the previous advisory, due to the farther west
initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z  9.4N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 10.1N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 11.3N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 12.2N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 13.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea 
 
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 
 
 

AIR FORCE RECON FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN POTENTIAL TC TWO

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (INVEST 92L) IS NOT UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BRET!


TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19 2017 0424 PM EDT

Three waves in the tropics other than the two systems that are being monitored closely these waves are not showing signs of organization at this time...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



INVEST 93L TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0401 PM

I WILL MORE THAN LIKE HAVE TO UPDATE THIS INFO AGAIN AS SOON AS THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS IN AT NHC AND THEY DETERMINE WHAT STATUS TO GIVE THIS STORM SYSTEM. 

SO FAR FOLKS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.


TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19, 2017 1222 PM EDT

There three tropical waves over the Atlantic and so far those are not showing signs of organization.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net


1100 AM EDT TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 FOR INVEST 92L (BRET)

LATEST UPDATE 1100 AM EDT  FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BRET




TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0924 AM EDT

INVEST 92L, TD TWO OR BRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF SHEAR AS IT PASSES 55WEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SMALL COMPACT STORM AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.




INVEST 93L STILL ORGANIZING AND TAKING ONE OF THOSE WEIRD GULF OF MEXICO STORMS SHAPE.  THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.  KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING AND BE READY TO ACT IF WATCH OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...RTW