000 WTNT33 KNHC 202034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...CINDY MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 90.6W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to San Luis Pass, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Cindy has been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Today June 20, 2017
Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind 6 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Jun 21
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday Jun 22
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Jun 23
Isolated Storms Day: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Jun 24
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Jun 25
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Jun 26
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND REVIEW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)
I WANTED TO SEE WHY THERE IS NO CINDY THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WHY NO UPGRADE WITH WIND GUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER OVER 50 MPH.
WELL NOT ONLY DOES THIS SYSTEM HAVE AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION BUT IT HAS DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS DRYING UP ANY CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS) TRYING TO RAP AROUND THE SMALL CIRCULATION CIRCLED ON THESE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. SO UNTIL THEN GUSTY WINDS OFF SHORE AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
IS THERE STILL A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO CINDY? THAT WOULD ALL DEPEND ON THE DRY AIR AND AS THREE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE CLOCK KEEPS TICKING AND TIME COULD RUN OUT. MY ANIMATED GRAPHICS SHOWS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD FADING OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH I HAVE SEEN DISORGANIZED SYSTEM REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RTW
000 WTNT42 KNHC 201433 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring only to the north of the center. The intensity forecast remains unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models. Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM BRET
000 WTNT43 KNHC 201436 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday, but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by 48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (CINDY)
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of High Island to San Luis Pass
000 WTNT42 KNHC 200853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding features. The structure of the cyclone continues to be characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the CDO. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before. No significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the circulation interacts with Venezuela today. In 24 hours or so, a weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea. The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus, IVCN. The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now around 290/18 kt. There continues to be little change to the track forecast philosophy. The flow on the southern side of a well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 10.6N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 11.5N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 12.4N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 13.3N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 13.6N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 WTNT43 KNHC 200852 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and the radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone. The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida. The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into the westerlies. Overall, there has been a left shift of the track guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model consensus, especially at 36-48 h. Given the nature of the circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said, development into a tropical cyclone remains possible. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven