Storm Investigation 94L continues to slowly become better organized. This 1011 mb is Low is between 33° and 34° West Latitude. Although they say this system is nearly stationary it seems to have drifted more toward the West and West-Northwest. Sahara air layer is still to the north of this system near 12° N longitude. Being that this system is now at a lower Longitude it and along a monsoonal trough the showers are more numerous.
NHC has now raised the probability of development to Medium chance within 48 hrs. and the High remains at 70% within the next 48 hrs for now.
Keeping an eye on the low near 34° West Latitude for development in the coming days. Latest satellite animation shows a small circulation obscured by clouds and the showers are becoming more numerous as this system meanders for now at a lower longitude between 08° and 10° North.
Being at these lower Longitudes seems to have help this system a bit since the Sahara Air Layer is north of 12° North Longitude, and this low is within a moist monsoonal trough which is enhancing shower activity around this system.
NHC is has up the LOW chance to 30% within 48 hrs. and the HIGH chance remains at 70% during the next 5-days.
Stay tuned here for the latest on Storm Invest 94 L
A tropical wave that was part of a low pressure has detached and is now to the west of the low near 39° West Latitude. The low is now considered STORM INVEST 94L since probabilities for development are rising. The low has been meandering, and is now a bit further south around 09° North Longitude and near 33° West Latitude. This may be a tad more favorable for development if it begins tracking westward at those low longitutdes and away from the Sahara Air Layer (African dust & dry air ) that is presently north of 12° North Longitude of where the low is located.
High pressure over the Atlantic north of this system will eventually begin steering this low to the west or west-northwest and north of the northern Leeward Islands as most models suggest. Still to early to say if that forecast will hold because the atmosphere changes constantly.
NHC is giving this system a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs. and has increased to HIGH chance 70% within the next 5-days.