Wednesday, July 5, 2017
The center of circulation of 94L is remains exposed to the right of the convection (thunderstorms) ahead of the low level circulation. Most of the models keep this system weak and some even show it diminishing as it nears the Eastern Bahamas. This system has its own moisture surrounding the low but there is a wide area of dry air that this system has to track through and moderate easterly shear is also affecting the low/wave. It still has a chance for development before it runs into a more unfavorable environment. As for the track a weak system will tend to track west-to a west-northwest. However, this system has been generally tracking toward the northwest per model and past position/track issued for this invest during each model run. Some models still have that left bias and once again this could be that the Atlantic high will build westward in time or we will be dealing with a weak disorganized system that will not be influenced by any troughs moving off the east coast... Stay tuned here daily for the latest update on 94L.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
The 12z model run is out and there is still a leftward bias on most of the tracks. however, we don't have a well developed system, and its still to far out in the Atlantic to get tight accurate run.
So far this system is struggling with some moderate easterly shear between 36° and 45° west Latitude. There is also dry air between 40° and 60° west Latitude that this system will have to deal with. However, the Low seems to be surrounded by its own moisture, so some slow development is possible as this system begins tracking to the west-northwest. 94L has been tracking mainly toward the northwest.
0200 PM EDT UPDATE from NHC
NHC drops probability for development, see below.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
There is an area of showers with a small nucleus of colder cloud tops where the stronger storms are located ahead of the Low Level Circulation (LLC). If this circulation can manage to catch up with the convectiom (thunderstorms) then we will see a depression form later today or tomorrow. Most of the models are still suggesting a weak system although intensity models say a tropical storm. According to atmospherirc data the conditions ahead of this system will become unfavorable in the coming days and this could be what the models are suggesting. I will keep you posted. http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
I will keep watching it for you in the coming days.