An area of showers and storms associated with a trough of low at the surface which is north of the Leeward Islands are the remnants of T.D. 4. This system has been interacting with a mid to upper level low near 27°N and 57°W. This upper low is presently affecting the thunderstorm activity that was more numerous earlier. Wind shear over the low has cause the clouds to warm. Pressures were falling earlier as this system was trying to make a come back but now pressures are rising again. System still has a nice circulation but once again its lacking thunderstorms at this time. Development if any would be slow to occur....RTW
As for the Atlantic wave not much going on there either. I will continue to monitor both system.
I will spend more time talking about the remnants of T.D. 4 north of the Leeward Islands since it is closer to land than the Atlantic system at this time.
An area of showers and storms associated with a trough of low pressure at the surface which is north of the Leeward Islands are the remnants of T.D. 4. This system has been interacting with a mid to upper level low near 27°N and 57°W. Models have been hinting at some development as it tracks toward the west-northwest. Pressure seems to be falling surrounding this system per some of the Buoys in the area. Regardless of development or not this system could bring showers and storms and squally conditions for the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days. I'm giving this system a 0% chance for development during the next 48hrs at this time. RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
1. There is a new future storm investigation in the Atlantic. A westward moving tropical wave located near 13°North Lat. 30°West Long. to 05°North Lat. 30°West Long. is now being monitored by NHC for development in the coming days. Low pressure may form along or east of the waves axis later today. NHC is giving this system a LOW 0% chance within 48hrs. and a LOW 20% chance within the next 5-days.
2. Update to this post 1145 AM EDT...some models are suggesting some development with this system. Whether it is weak development as some models suggest I don't want any surprises so I posted LOW 0% chance within 48hrs...RTW A Trough north of the Leeward Islands interacting with an mid to upper level low is still producing an area of showers and storms that has been nearly stationary. This system will slowly track west-northwest in the coming days.
3. Another wave near western Cuba is also interacting with a broad mid to upper low in the northwest Caribbean and this is enhance rain and storm over southern Florida and the Florida straits this morning.
Eslewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 73hrs.