Monday, July 17, 2017

TROPICAL STORM DON JULY 17, 2017 1103 PM EDT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 180235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...DON EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 54.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should
monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 54.6 West.  Don is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected through
Wednesday evening.  On the forecast track, the center of Don will
move across the Windward Islands late Tuesday and then westward
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Tuesday while Don approaches
the Windward Islands.  Weakening is expected on Wednesday when Don
moves through the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

RAINFALL:  Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 
 

 

TROPICAL STORM DON JULY 17, 2017 0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 172100
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grenada.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 36
hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should
monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track the center of Don will move through the
Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

RAINFALL:  Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
 


 

NHC INITIATING PUBLIC ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM DON AT 0500 PM EDT

NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Tropical Storm Don, located east of the Windward Islands.

18z MODEL RUN FOR STORM INVEST 95L JULY 17, 2017 0359 PM EDT

Invest 95L is still encountering wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air.  The convection (thunderstorms) associated with this system is minimal at this time.  This system will be affecting the Windward Islands tomorrow evening.

As for the other system behind 95L it is also experiencing some wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air.  So far this system looks to be an Atlantic system with no landfall.

RTW 











LIGHTNING ALERT 0243 PM EDT JUL 17, 2017


LIGHTNING DETECTED NEAR BY JULY 17 2017


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 17, 2017 1123 AM EDT

Other than the two Storm Investigation over the Central Atlantic the tropics remain quiet for now.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



12z MODEL RUN FOR INVEST 95L JULY 17, 2017 0951 AM EDT

Invest 95L still has a nice circulation but this morning it seems to be encountering some wind shear and dry Sahara dust and air.  It is noticeable on enhanced IR, water vapor and visible satellite.  You can see feathering of the clouds the cold cloud tops warming and thunderstorm activity has diminished some.  This system now has a Medium chance 50% within 48hrs. and a Med chance 50% within 5-days.

There is another system that I circled yesterday that NHC is now also monitoring that has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs. and a Low chance 30% within 5-days.  This system is right behind Inest 95L.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net