Monday, July 31, 2017

EMILY DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION JULY 31, 2017 0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312043
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SEBRING FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the remainder
of the Florida west coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily
was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 81.7 West. Emily is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this afternoon and early
evening. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected by tonight and Tuesday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the
central Florida peninsula this evening, and move offshore of the
east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while Emily
moves across the central Florida peninsula tonight. Slow
strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic
Ocean on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to
8 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 
 



 

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST




Today Jul 31, 2017
Mostly cloudy with numerous showers during the day: Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with numerous showers during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Aug 1
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. South wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 91°F. Southwest wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Aug 2
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. South southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Aug 3
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Aug 4
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 97°F. East wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Aug 5
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Aug 6
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind 11 to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S IN MIAMI FL. 




Local Radar

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2017 1259 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. Monitoring a strong cluster of storm west-southwest of Cape Verde Islands...RTW

2. Monitoring the Central Atlantic Wave no change in development...RTW

3. See NHC Public Advisories and RTW Storm Track Page for forecast graphics and information on EMILY...RTW

Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet for now.


CORRECTED FIRST IMAGE...1137 AM TROPICAL STORM EMILY JULY 31, 2017 1100 AM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...EMILY APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 82.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed are expected by tonight and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland
over the the west-central Florida peninsula this afternoon, and move
across central Florida through tonight.  Emily is forecast to move
offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs this
afternoon.  Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula later today and tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible. Reports from amateur radio operators indicate that
street and road flooding has already been occurring in Manatee and
Sarasota Counties near the Myakka River.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 
 
JUST CORRECTED BOTTOM IMAGE I HAD PLACE THE EARLIER IMAGE THIS IS NOW CURRENT RTW 
 


 






TROPICAL STORM EMILY WEST OF TAMPA WARNINGS ISSUES JULY 31 2017 0954 AM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311139
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Special Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the northeast and an
increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over
the the west-central Florida peninsula later today and move across
central Florida through tonight.  Emily is expected to move offshore
of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday.

NOAA Doppler radar data from Tampa, Florida, indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs
this afternoon.  Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart