Friday, August 4, 2017

TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 4, 2017 1128 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. INVEST 99L Not much going on with this system at this time.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable as this system tracks west to a west-northwest in the coming week. The atmosphere to the north of this system is still setup for a track mainly to the west northwest and if this persist it could be a problem for the U.S. east coast in the coming weeks...RTW

2.  INVEST 90L is gradually gaining organization as it tracks further west toward the  Yucatan and into the BOC (Bay of Campeche) in the coming week...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

STORM INVESTIGATION 99L





 STORM INVESTIGATION 90L










TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 4, 2017 0405 PM EDT

Note I will do the website update later this evening.  For now I will release the 18z Model run and other tracking maps on 99L and 90L.  A full update for the 00z run after 0800 pm edt...RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the early or middle part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.  This disturbance is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the
western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next
week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg 
 


 
STORM INVEST 99L




STORM INVEST 90L



COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY UPDATED 2017 HURRICANE FORECAST STILL ABOVE NORMAL

51m51 minutes ago
Craig Setzer CBS4 Retweeted Philip Klotzbach
Probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline is above-normal due to the fcst for above-average season.



MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Today Aug 4, 2017
Mostly Sunny during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 100°F. African Dust in the environment.  East southeast wind 10 to 15 MPH. 

Mostly Clear during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH.

Saturday Aug 5
Mostly Sunny during the day: Highs around 91°F. Heat index around 102°F. African dust in the Environment.  Southeast wind 8 to 14 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH.

Sunday Aug 6
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 100°F. East southeast wind 10 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH.

Scattered Storms during the night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Aug 7
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Aug 8
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Aug 9
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Aug 10
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

FORECAST MAPS ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA









TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 4, 2017 1102 AM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. INVEST 99L is a two part system with a tropical wave and mulitple lows.  Showers and storms are not well organized at this time but this system still has the potential for tropical cyclone formation next week. The atmospheric pattern north of this system at present is setup for this system to track toward the west-northwest with out a chance for re-curve toward the north.  Will have to keep a close watch on this system into next week...RTW..RTW

2.  INVEST 90L not organized and this time but conditions seem favorable for organziation as it tracks toward the Yucatan during the next few days...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

STORM INVEST 99L





STORM INVEST 90L