Sunday, August 6, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 6 2017 1132 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1.  Another strong wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Islas de Callo Verde)...RTW


2.  INVEST 99L Looking ill defined, development if any will be slow to occur...RTW

3.  TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES...RTW
 
 
 

FRANKNLIN FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN AUG 6 2017 1100 PM EDT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Gulf coast of Mexico from south of Campeche to Sabancuy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On
the forecast track, the center will pass north of Honduras tonight
and early Monday, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula on Monday afternoon.  The system is forecast to move
across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches the eastern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, mainly to the northeast.  NOAA buoy 42057 in the
northwest Caribbean Sea has recently reported peak sustained winds
of 40 mph with a gust to 49 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon.  Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in portions of the watch area in Belize by Monday
afternoon.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in Mexico on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
 
 
 

INVEST 99L LOOKING ILL DEFINED AND SEEM TO BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS.

99L seems to be running out of gas.  I be surprise if this system makes a come back.  I will continue to monitor it but as it is now it looks ill defined.






POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT BY NHC AUG 6, 2017


NHC HAS ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON INVEST 90L AND NOW IT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 062339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West.  The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday,
then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday
afternoon.  The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day
or so.

Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and
the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening.  Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky