000 WTNT34 KNHC 180230 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...HARVEY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 57.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Thursday, August 17, 2017
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY 1100 PM EDT UPDATE AUG 17, 2017
EYE ON THE TROPICS 0954 PM EDT AUG 17, 2017
RTW: Review of the Tropics
1. A Storm INVEST has that moved off the southwest African coast a few days ago is being monitored for development during next week.
2. INVEST 92L is having a difficult time developing with 91L ahead of it and also dry air. As this system tracks north of the Leeward islands this weekend the upper level conditions and Dry air become less favorable for development. It will be monitored closely since some models continue to track this system toward the west-northwest.
4. Showers and storms over eastern Dominican Republic and the Atlantic water east of the eastern Bahamas is associated with a strong mid to upper level low. This low is producing enough upper level lift to the east of the circulation and is enhancing thunderstorm along a tropical waves axis which is located over eastern Dominican Republic. Dry air accompanies the low but behind it showers and thunderstorms which will move across the greater Antilles and Florida by the weekend. At this time there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation, but keep a close eye on this system since it is close to Florida...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY 0518 PM EDT AUG 17, 2017
000 WTNT34 KNHC 172047 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM HARVEY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 55.8W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 55.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
TRACKING THE TROPICS 0409 PM EDT AUG 17, 2017
RTW: Review of the Tropics
1. A Storm INVEST has that moved off the southwest African coast a few days ago is being monitored for development during next week.
2. INVEST 92L is having a difficult time developing with 91L ahead of it and also dry air. As this system trackis north of the Leeward islands this weekend the upper level conditions and ry air become less favorable for development. It will be monitored closely since some models
4. Showers and storms over Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Atlantic water east of the eastern Bahamas is associated with a strong mid to upper level low. This low is producing enough upper level lift to the east of the circulation and is enhancing thunderstorm along a tropical waves axis which is located over eastern Dominican Republic. Dry air accompanies the low but behind it showers and thunderstorms which will move across the greater Antilles and Florida by the weekend. At this time there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation, but one model suggest some development. Maybe sub-tropical or tropical in nature. Keep a close eye on this one since its close to Florida. Heavy rains, thunderstorms in squalls will affect the east Bahamas this evening as it tracks west...RTW
5. For Hurricane GERT advisories click here>> The National Hurricane Center
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW: http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
HURRICANE GERT, NEWLY FORM T.D. NINE AND INVESTS UPDATE 1147 AM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 171433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.2N 50.0W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
000 WTNT34 KNHC 171439 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For Martinique. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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