Thursday, August 17, 2017

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY 1100 PM EDT UPDATE AUG 17, 2017


000
WTNT34 KNHC 180230
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HARVEY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 57.4 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Harvey should
move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 

EYE ON THE TROPICS 0954 PM EDT AUG 17, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. A Storm INVEST has that moved off the southwest African coast a few days ago is being monitored for development during next week.

2. INVEST 92L is having a difficult time developing with 91L ahead of it and also dry air.  As this system tracks north of the Leeward islands this weekend the upper level conditions and Dry air become less favorable for development.  It will be monitored closely since some models continue to track this system toward the west-northwest.
3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW

4. Showers and storms over eastern Dominican Republic and the Atlantic water east of the eastern Bahamas is associated with a strong mid to upper level low.  This low is producing enough upper level lift to the east of the circulation and is enhancing thunderstorm along a tropical waves axis which is located over eastern Dominican Republic.  Dry air accompanies the low but behind it showers and thunderstorms which will move across the greater Antilles and Florida by the weekend.  At this time there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation, but keep a close eye on this system since it is close to Florida
...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 





FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY 0518 PM EDT AUG 17, 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 172047
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 55.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 55.8 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven 


 

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0409 PM EDT AUG 17, 2017


RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. A Storm INVEST has that moved off the southwest African coast a few days ago is being monitored for development during next week.

2. INVEST 92L is having a difficult time developing with 91L ahead of it and also dry air.  As this system trackis north of the Leeward islands this weekend the upper level conditions and ry air become less favorable for development.  It will be monitored closely since some models
3. For latest updates on this system click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW

4. Showers and storms over Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Atlantic water east of the eastern Bahamas is associated with a strong mid to upper level low.  This low is producing enough upper level lift to the east of the circulation and is enhancing thunderstorm along a tropical waves axis which is located over eastern Dominican Republic.  Dry air accompanies the low but behind it showers and thunderstorms which will move across the greater Antilles and Florida by the weekend.  At this time there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation, but one model suggest some development.  Maybe sub-tropical or tropical in nature.  Keep a close eye on this one since its close to Florida.  Heavy rains, thunderstorms in squalls will affect the east Bahamas this evening as it tracks west...RTW

5.  For Hurricane GERT advisories click here>> The National Hurricane Center


Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW:  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



HURRICANE GERT, NEWLY FORM T.D. NINE AND INVESTS UPDATE 1147 AM EDT


000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 


 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For
Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a
tropical cyclone later today or tonight.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven