Friday, August 18, 2017

HARVEY AND INVEST 92L UPDATE 1135 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  Forecast call for some what favorable conditions for may be some development next week.

2. INVEST 92L is having a difficult time developing with 91L has been under the influence dry air and upper level shear north of this system.  Conditions ahead of 92L are not looking any better so it will continue having a hard time developing.  In fact most of the models like the GFS and the EURO model suggest a tropical wave as it approaches the Bahamas.  However, disturbance that come from that direction will be monitored closely.

3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW
 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net


 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 190233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 64.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 64.1 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  An even faster
motion toward the west is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 



STORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY 0422 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just west of the Windward Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization.  However,
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable, and the chances for
a tropical cyclone to form are diminishing.  The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some
development early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven 
 

TROPICAL UPDATE 0305 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

Review of Invest 92L via visible satellite shows that this system is encountering upper level shear from a mid to upper level low to the north of of 92L.  Also 92L is moving through dry air and this is also hindering rapid development.  High pressure steering currents are strong and pushing this system toward the west to west-northwest.  We must continue to monitor this one closely.

Forecast guidance models still track 92L toward the west-northwest around the periphery of the high pressure ridge and toward the Bahamas and Florida.  I am now seeing a turn toward the north with some of the models you can see it on this mornings 12z model run and now on the latest 18z model run.  Disregard the CLP5 that is a historical model.  I will keep monitoring that turn toward the north for a trend, but as you still see some say Florida. There are some short run that suggest weakening of this system.

As for the intensity models a few suggest a tropical storm to a cat 1 hurricane at some point then they weaken it to a depression or below that status.  I will keep a close watch on it.   I will post on Harvey later that storm will strengthen some as it enters the eastern Caribbean.

ABSENSE OF BLOGS! AUG 18, 2017

Wasn't feeling all that great over night stayed home from work feeling a bit better now. I just got up out of bed for those of you wondering why I have not posted any blog updates or website updates. I will try to get some of it done in a bit.  

NOTE SITE BUILDER IS DOWN I BEEN TRYING TO CONNECT TO UPDATE MY WEBSITE AND THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH THEIR SERVERS.  I WILL KEEP TRYING EVERY SO OFTEN.  FOR NOW i WILL POST ALL MY UPDATES HERE AS USUAL.