Saturday, August 19, 2017

...HARVEY DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...THIS IS THE LAST UPDATE...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Harvey Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of the
remnants of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Harvey were located near
latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.8 West.  The tropical wave
associated with Harvey's remnants is moving quickly toward the west
near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion will continue for the
next day or two.  The remnants are expected to move westward across
the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday and across the western Caribbean
Sea toward Central America on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical
cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0946 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017

 
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central
Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited
showers and thunderstorms.  The wave is currently embedded in a
dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a couple of days.  Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 
 

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


 

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0433 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  This system is lacking convection (thunderstorms) and is also struggling to develop.  Atmospheric conditions are slowly becoming some what favorable for development during next week.

2. INVEST 92L is still moving through dry air and some westerly shear.  There is another upper low to the northwest of 92L that could also interfere with development.  Wind shear ahead of 92L a this time is marginal, and dry air is present.  
18z Intensity model calls for a tropical storm or even a Cat.1 hurricane to form from this weather system.  
As for the guidance models I have been seeing a trend toward the north and northeast.  But a few still take this system toward the west-northwest and Florida.  I am not real excited with this system, but I will continue to monitor it...RTW
3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net





HARVEY AND INVEST 92L UPDATE 1243 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized,
and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  This system is lacking convection (thunderstorms) and is also struggling to develop.

2. INVEST 92L is still moving through dry air and some westerly shear.  There is another upper low to the northwest of 92L that could also interfere with development.  Wind shear ahead of 92L a this time is marginal, and dry air is present.  Intensity model call for a tropical storm to form from this system.  As for the guidance models I have been seeing a trend toward the north and northeast.  But a few still take this system toward the west-northwest and Florida.  I am not real excited with this system, but I will continue to monitor it...RTW
3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW