Tuesday, August 22, 2017

INVEST 92L FIRING UP STORM OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA 1111 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017

Latest satellite imagery show a ball of convection off the southwest coast of Florida.  Invest 92L is almost off the coast or is already off the coast and this could be the beginning of some organization with this system.  Some of the previous model run showed this system organizing slightly off the southwest coast then track northeast across Florida a nd strengthening to a tropical cyclone east of GA and the Carolinas.  Even if it doesn't organize it would have the potential for heavy over Southern Florida during the next few days.  Flood potential for the state so stay tuned to local media and the National Weather Service in Miami....RTW






MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST 0419 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017



Tonight Aug 22, 2017
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Wednesday Aug 23
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Thursday Aug 24
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. South southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Friday Aug 25
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. West southwest wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Saturday Aug 26
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs around 88°F. West southwest wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. West wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Sunday Aug 27
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 88°F. West wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows around 81°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday Aug 28
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Day: Highs around 88°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. North northeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI, FLORIDA






Local Radar

NOAA G-IV JET ON THE WAY TO THE GULF TO SAMPLE ENVIRONMENT TO GET BETTER FIX ON HARVEY FUTURE PATH

47m47 minutes ago


WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

3h3 hours ago
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.

EYES ON THE TROPICS 0301 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017

1. INVEST92L...Models continue to suggest weak development off the southeast coast of Florida and a track toward the northwest then northward or northeast.  Some models tracks this system across Southern Florida and  the Gulf then back across Florida and a track toward the northeast, and possibly strengthen into a tropical cyclone east of the eastern seaboard.  We will just have to wait and see if this system does mature into a tropical entity. Showers and storms are accumulating this afternoon over the Bahamas and are tracking westward. As this system attempts to get its act together it will more than likely produce a wet environment over Southern Florida.  So the next few days are looking very wet.  You can't rule out localized flooding as this system tracks slowly northwest...RTW

2. INVEST 91L HARVEY continues to organize and now has a high chance for development 90% within 48 hrs. and a 100% within 5-days.  Harvey is a threat for Texas and possibly Louisiana.  models are all over the place but Texas seems to be Harvey's prime target for now...RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net







TROPICAL UPDATE 1253 AM EDT AUG 22, 2017

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212329
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
 
 RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net