Friday, August 25, 2017

HURRICANE HARVEY UPDATE 11 PM EDT AUG 25, 2017



000
WTNT34 KNHC 260300
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 97.0 West.  Harvey has
just made landfall on the Texas coast over the northern end of San
Jose Island about 4 miles (6 km) east of Rockport.  Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  The hurricane is
expected to slow its forward motion and move slowly over
southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours while the center of Harvey is over southeastern Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).  A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 111 mph (178 km/h)
and a wind gust of 131 mph (211 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...9 to 13 ft
Port O'Connor to Sargent...6 to 9 ft
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Port Aransas...5 to 8 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...4 to 6 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in the Port
Aransas to Port O'Connor area and should spread over other portions
of the hurricane warning area during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the
hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.  Tropical storm
conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through
at least Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 

 





 
Local Radar

CLOSE UP RADAR IMAGE OF HARVEY EYE AS IT NEAR S THE COAST

STRONGEST WINDS OF HARVEY MOVING ON SHORE!

HARVEY NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS STORM SURGE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST

000
WTNT34 KNHC 252054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY BEARING DOWN ON THE TEXAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 96.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Port
Mansfield, Texas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Port
Mansfield, Texas.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
north of Boca de Catan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by aircraft reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near
latitude 27.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Harvey is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed is
expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas
coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander
near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph
(205 km/h) with higher gusts.  Harvey is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional
strengthening is possible before Harvey makes landfall overnight.
Weakening is then expected over the weekend while the center moves
inland over Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  A station at Aransas Pass, Texas, recently
reported a sustained wind 56 mph and a gust to 71 mph.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft reconnaissance data
is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas, and hurricane
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
in the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are likely to
persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 




 
Local Radar

HURRICANE HARVEY UPDATE 0413 PM EDT 08/25/17




SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service. 
 
 

RADAR ANIMATION OF HARVEY


LOOK AT THE RAINFALL FORECAST

6h6 hours ago
This is not a model, this is an official rainfall forecast for Corpus Christi to Victoria. Speechless.

MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST


000
WTNT34 KNHC 251452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 96.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday.  During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana.  Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 


Correction to below Model run I post last night 00z this is the correct graphic below