Saturday, August 26, 2017

HARVEY UPDATE AND TROPIC WEBSITE UPDATE 1118 PM EDT


000
WTNT34 KNHC 270245
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and the Tropical Storm Warning
are discontinued north of Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
drifting east-northeastward. A drift toward the south or southeast
is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Harvey is expected to remain inland over southeastern
Texas.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  During the past few hours, the airport at New
Braunfels, Texas has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h)
and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around
40 inches in this area. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause
catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. Elsewhere during the
same time period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas
coast, farther west toward the the Texas Hill Country, and farther
east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall
observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Sargent...3 to 6 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:   Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the
center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along
the coast.  These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday
morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana should subside through Sunday morning.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



1. An agressive wave moving toward the west coast of Africa.  It will be monitored this week for development...RTW

2. INVEST 92L
An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolina's through early next week. Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information on this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent...NHC


3. HARVEY REMAINS A FLOOD THREAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND LOCAL N.W.S. OFFICE...RTW






 HARVEY

 INVEST 92L




 

HARVEY UPDATE 1100 AM EDT AUG 26, 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261451
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.  A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta 

 

MORE HARVEY DAMAGE

44m44 minutes ago
It's really hard to navigate the neighborhoods all the old trees are stripped or torn down.
First light reveals heavy damage in Rockport, TX. .
Widespread structural damage in Rockport.
First light in Rockport Texas. A lot of damage.
Semi truck flipped over. looking for driver. There were two trucks here. Looking for other.
Damage in Refugio, TX
  damage in Aransas Pass, TX. RT : Extensive damage in Aransas Pass.

  3h3 hours ago
Dawn in Rockport, . Landscape is smashed, stripped, and scrubbed in 's wake. A monstrous cyclone.
Flooding in all areas surrounding , Texas. Water still rising in some areas

https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/901454432226955264 


37m37 minutes ago
: [RETWEET!] The entire area Holiday Park Beach, Fulton, Rockport, apartment buildings have collapsed! Help needed!!
Extreme Damage in Rockport, Texas
Emergency broadcast: The entire area Holiday Park Beach,Fulton, Rockport, apartment buildings have collapsed. Help needed ASAP


Some max wind gusts recorded last night


ROCKPORT TX AIRPORT SEVERE DAMAGE

1h1 hour ago
Rockport airport severe damage.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK 1039 AM EDT

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. INVEST 92L
An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central Florida is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although some development of this system is expected when it moves northeastward near the southeast United States coast, it is becoming more likely that the low will merge with a front before significant tropical or subtropical development occurs. Regardless of development, heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of southern and central Florida during the next few days. In addition, this system is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolina's through early next week. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Brown
NHC

2. HARVEY REMAINS A FLOOD THREAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND LOCAL N.W.S. OFFICE...RTW