Wednesday, August 30, 2017

HARVEY AND IRMA ADVISORY AND FORECAST MAPS AUG 30, 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch and Warning are discontinued for the coasts
of Texas and Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Harvey is
moving erratically toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight.  A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through southwestern and
central Louisiana tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana
and northwestern Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves
farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.  An automated
station near Lacassine, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of
44 mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches.  The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week.  The expected
heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western
Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river and
small stream flooding.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS.  Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday.  These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
this evening.  Gusts to tropical-storm-force are possible over
other portions of southern Louisiana through this evening.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coast of
Louisiana, but are expected to subside late tonight and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas. Additional tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon
and evening across northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and
Georgia into parts of Tennessee.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN


 
 ...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  The tropical storm
is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a
slower rate of speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN
 

18z MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY MODEL RUN FOR HARVEY AND IRMA 0355 PM EDT AUG 30 2017

HARVEY 18z MODEL RUN

The 18z model run for IRMA no telling where it will go at this time.  Some suggest East of the U.S. Coast other suggest somewhere along the Eastern Sea board or in the Gulf of Mexico. There to many uncertainties at this time.  Monday will have a better feel of where it may end up.  Will continue to watch closely.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

Satellite shows a maturing tropical cyclone and we could see a hurricane form over night or tomorrow.  Wind shear for the next five days looks good for development.  In this image animation you can see the buzz saw look which means this system has good over all inflow and outflow.  IRMA a storm to watch.
 The 18z Intensity model from tropicaltidbits.com show a Category 3 hurricane in the near future.  I think it could get up higher depending on the conditions ahead next week.  RTW

TOMORROWS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

6
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.


HARVEY AND IRMA FORECAST ADVISORY 1100 AM EDT AUG 30 1017

...CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 301447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch is discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Holly Beach Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to west of Holly Beach Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.3 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn
toward the northeast is expected Thursday night and Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through
southwestern and central Louisiana today and tonight, then move
through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves
farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center.  During the past few hours,
there have been reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas near Lake Charles,
Cameron, and Sabine Pass.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10
inches.  The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week.  The expected
heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western
Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river, small
stream flooding.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.  Please
see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday.  These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft
Morgan City to Grand Isle...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
this afternoon.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 

  
...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...  


ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 30.3 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma could become a hurricane
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
 



12z MODEL RUN FOR HARVEY AND NEWLY FORM TROPICAL STORM IRMA 1031 AM EDT AUG 30, 2017

HARVEY INLAND OVER LOUISIANA  DUMPING MORE RAINS OVER THAT STATE. 

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM IRMA WEST OF THE CABO VERDE OR (CAPE VERDE ISLANDS), NHC WILL BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM AT 11 AM EDT AUG 30, 2017. 

IRMA COULD BE THE NEXT MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. 

SOME PREVIOUS MODELS RE-CURVE THIS STORM SYSTEM NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEA BOARD, BUT ITS STILL TO EARLY TO KNOW THE ACTUAL TRACK IT WILL TAKE.  STAY TUNED HERE FOR UPDATES.