Thursday, August 31, 2017

IRMA PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORECAST MAPS 1051 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the west
is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 

 

00z MODEL RUN FOR IRMA 0922 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

We will continued to monitor this dangerous storm as it tracks toward the west-northwest.  Here are the latest model guidance and intensity model.  Note that the intensity  models no longer suggest a Cat five in this 00z model run.



IRMA RAPIDLY INTESIFYING COULD BE THE FIRST CAT FIVE OF THE 2017 HURRICANE SEASON 5 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West.  Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday,
and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength,
both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane for several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 

 

18z MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTESITY MODEL 0302 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

I STILL SEE THE SAME TREND WITH THE MODELS.  THAT UPWARD SLOPE THAT MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IS PROBABLY RELATED TO A STRONG LOW PART OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT.  THIS IS WHAT USE TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 / INVEST 92L.  THESE MODELS ARE PROBABLY DEPICTING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH LEFT BEHIND BY THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE HURRICANE CENTER THEY MAY BE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT A STRONG HURRICANE CAN TEND TO BUILD ITS OWN HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH SUCH AS ANDREW DID IN 1992.  THIS WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THIS SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 5-DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP ANYWHERE. 

INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES/ NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR IRMA.

INTENSITY MODELS ARE MOST SAYING A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE BUT 1 MODEL IS NOW SUGGESTING A RARE CAT 5.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST ON IRMA...RTW


IRMA NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY

1h1 hour ago
Yes… thought the storms that went within 65 nmi of the 5-day position include Donna, 1915 Galveston, and 1928 monsters.


IRMA 11 AM EDT AUG 31, 2017 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORCAST MAPS


...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


000
WTNT31 KNHC 311448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is
forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward
motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by
tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 


 

IRMA 12z MODEL RUN 1010 AM EDT AUG 31, 2017

I CONTINUE TO SEE THAT ROLLER COASTER SLOPE IN THE MODEL RUN.  THAT DOWN SLOPE TOWARDS THE 5 -DAY PERIOD IS MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER IRMA AND FORCING THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK.  IF THE FORECAST IS CORRECT AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS, THIS COULD BE AN IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

INTEREST IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

IRMA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND CAN BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANYTIME.  IRMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 5-DAYS AND COULD REACH CAT 4 STATUS.  THIS STORM SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY!





LATE TROPIC UPDATE 1200 AM EDT 08/31/17

...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight.  A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches.  The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area.  However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week.  The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.  DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS.  Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday.  These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
 


 
...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... 
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 310231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 32.2 West.  Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by Thursday, and this general motion
should continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma
is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown