Sunday, September 3, 2017

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1100 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 51.0 West.  Irma is moving
toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to
approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will begin affecting the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 



 

00z MODEL RUN FOR HURRICANE IRMA 0900 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

HERE ARE THE LATEST MODEL STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 7 DAYS.  STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...RTW

 These are the Hurricane center models and note that the HWFI is further south and west.  This could be an indication that high pressure continues to build over Irma pushing the cyclone south a more westward.   Also note the OFCI hurricane center forecast tracking somewhat south of previous as well.
This persistence puts South Florida under the gun.  Consider checking your kits making sure every thing is in order.  The Coast of Florida from the Florida Keys northward to Jacksonville will more than likely be under some sort of watch and warning by next weekend.  BE HURRICANE READY!


BRYAN NORCROSS HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE SEPT 3, 2017

No good news this afternoon on HURRICANE IRMA. The track of the hurricane is as projected. It's heading a little south of due west, which will take it into a much more threatening position.
It appears that full hurricane preparations are going to be required in the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the D.R. & Haiti, and the Bahamas.
It is increasingly likely that hurricane preparations will be required on at least the east coast of Florida. There is no way to know the level of impact Irma might have on Florida at this time. South Florida will likely be touched by the end of the cone tomorrow.
After this week, a track up the East Coast or even into the Gulf cannot be ruled out. If Irma tracks over the mountainous Caribbean islands, it may miss the first opportunity to turn north and be pushed farther west. The bottom line is, everybody along the hurricane coast from New Orleans to New England should review their plans.
This will be a large, powerful storm, based on everything we know. It will not have to make a direct hit to have a significant effect. This is going to require everybody's attention until we have more certainty on the future track.


IRMA INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0800 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032346 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Corrected location

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 50.3W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 North, longitude
50.3 West.  Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
westward to west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward
speed is expected through Monday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Irma is expected to approach the northern Leeward Islands
late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

 

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032050
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A westward to west-southwestward
motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected through
Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Irma is
forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 


 I am keeping an eye on HWFI model because it performed well with Harvey and comparing it to the NHC OFCI model.  NHC model run still adjusting further south because of the dip southward the cyclone took.  This has prompted Hurricane watch for a portion of the Leeward Islands.
 18z model run

LABOR DAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

4
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.