Saturday, September 9, 2017

11PM IRMA UPDATE 9/9/2017

 ...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...WIND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Corrected to remove the Storm Surge Watch in the Watch/Warning
section

...IRMA TAKING ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward from the Suwannee
River to the Ochlockonee River.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of North Miami
Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
the province of Camaguey.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Matanzas, and La Habana
* Andros Island, Bimini, and Grand Bahama

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 81.0 West. Irma is moving
slowly northwestward away from the north coast of Cuba near 6 mph
(9 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected through late Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida
Keys Sunday morning and then move near or along the west coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Irma is forecast to restrengthen a little
while it moves through the Straits of Florida and remain a powerful
hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning.  Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward
across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through Sunday night,
mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida
peninsula.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 



 


JOSE WILL BE STUCK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.

Jose will be stuck in a weak steering environment waiting for Irma to move out of the area.  If High builds west then Jose could end up along the U.S. coast.  Needs to be monitored closely.


00z MODEL RUN 0932 PM EDT SEPT 9, 2017



HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 9, 2017

...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA... ...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT DAYBREAK...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from the Volusia/Brevard
County Line northward to the South Santee River.

The Hurricane Watch west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch
west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Fernandina Beach
to South Santee River.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the watches and warnings for
Holguin and Las Tunas provinces.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is
expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to
move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and
will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning.  The hurricane is
expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves
away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...
4 to 6 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning.  Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward
across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10  inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
over south Florida, expanding northward into central Florida on
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila 
 

 

ITS DIFFICULT FOR ME TO DO ALL MY UPDATES HERE...

ITS DIFFICULT FOR ME TO DO ALL MY UPDATES HERE SO SEND ME A FRIENDS REQUEST ON FACEBOOK RALPH ARENAS AND LOOK FOR RTW LOGO.

I WILL CONTINUE TO DO REGULAR UPDATES BUT RADAR IMAGES AND STORM DISCUSSION IM DOING IT ON FACEBOOK.

THANKS

LATEST 18Z MODEL RUN



11 AM IRMA ADVISORY 1036 AM EDT SEPT 9, 2017


...IRMA CONTINUES TO POUND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN WHILE HEADING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO POUND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN WHILE HEADING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Chassahowitzka to the
Suwanee River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended from north of the Suwanee
River to Ochlockonee River and from north of the Volusia/Brevard
County line north to Isle of Palms, South Carolina.

The Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the United States
has been extended northward to Fernandina Beach, and the Hurricane
Watch has been extended from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto
Beach.

The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf of Mexico coast has been
extended to the Aucilla River.  The Hurricane Watch is now in
effect from west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Edisto Beach
to the South Santee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of Indian Pass to
the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

The government of Cuba has extended the Hurricane Warning to the
Havana province.

The government of the Bahamas has adjusted the Hurricane Warning
to only include Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County line southward around the Florida
peninsula to the Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Isle of Palms,
South Carolina
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to
the Aucilla River
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was
located by a reconnaissance plane and radar near latitude 22.8
North, longitude 79.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west along
the north coast of Cuba at near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northwest motion
is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north-
northwest on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the core of Irma will
continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba later today,
and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning.  The hurricane is
expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it
moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  Caibarien, Cuba recently reported a wind gust to
124 mph (200 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 941
mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida
Keys...5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8
ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4
to 6 ft
Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:   Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern
Bahamas today, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the
Florida Keys tonight and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
 
 

 
 

12Zz MODEL RUN 0948 AM EDT

MODEL ARE MORE CLUSTERED TOGETHER NOW THAT IT IS CLOSE TO OUR SOUTH.  SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.  THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL GET A DIRECT HIT AND NO ONE SHOULD BE THERE.  THEY NEED TO LEAVE IMMEDIATELY OR FACE A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE WEST QUADRANT FOR THE STORM.  THIS AND INTERACTION WITH CUBA IS REALLY DOING A NUMBER ON THIS SYSTEM.  I WOULD NOT DOUBT IF DURING THE ELEVEN O'CLOCK  ADVISORY THE WINDS MAY HAVE DROPPED A BIT.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WOULD DROP TO A CAT THREE.  HOWEVER WILL SEE AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM CUBAN COAST WATERS A VERY WARM 32°C. OR 90°F PLENTY OF FUEL FOR IRMA TO REAGIN SOME STRENGTH IF DRY AIR DON;'T CONTINUE TO INTERFERE.