Sunday, September 10, 2017

IRMA'S WIND FIELD EXPANDS NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...IRMA PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110243
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 81.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.9 West.
Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn
toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track,
the center of Irma will continue to move over the western Florida
peninsula through Monday morning and then into the southeastern
United States late Monday and Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional
weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to become a tropical
storm over far northern Florida or southern Georgia on Monday.

Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the
central Florida peninsula.  Winds affecting the upper floors of
high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near
ground level.  Tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through Monday
morning.  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected
to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas
through Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas overnight.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches.

The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total
amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.

The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.

Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to
5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Monday
night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 

 

18Z MODEL RUN 0626 PM EDT


IRMA UPDATE ISSUED 0500 PM EDT SEPT 10, 2017

...IRMA NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGES EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EYE PASSAGE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGES EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EYE PASSAGE
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north-northwestward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight, with that
motion continuing through Monday.  On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should move near or over the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula through Monday morning.  Irma should then move inland over
northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain
a hurricane at least through Monday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).  A mesonet site at Naples Municipal Airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 88 mph (142 km/h) with a gust
to 135 mph (217 km/h) while in the northern eyewall of Irma.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).  A pressure of 937 mb
(27.67 inches) was measured by a storm spotter on Marco Island while
in Irma's eye.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...
5 to 10 ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the
southern Florida peninsula.  Winds affecting the upper floors of
high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near
ground level.  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected
to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas
through Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas this evening.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

The Florida Keys...Additional 3 to 6 inches with storm total amounts
from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.

The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.

Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to
5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes remain possible through tonight, mainly across
central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula and extreme
southeast Georgia.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 


 

SORRY FOR LAPSE IN UPDATES BUT I AM IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE IRMA CONDITIONS.


 
...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h, and a north-northwestward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that
motion continuing through Monday.  On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move
near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today
through tonight.  Irma should then move inland over northern Florida
and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west
coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).  A 120 mph (193 km/h) gust was recently reported at
the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.  A sustained wind of
62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h) was reported at
the Federal Aviation Administration station at Miami International
Airport.  A pressure of 940 mb (27.75 inches) was measured in the
calm of the eye on Upper Sugarloaf Key.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside
today.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
this morning.  Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions
of the Florida Keys and southern Florida.  Winds affecting the upper
floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than
those near ground level.  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions
are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning
areas through Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Cuba...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across
southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

 

LIVE NWS RADAR FROM MIAMI AND KEYWEST 0632 PM EDT 9/10/2017

CONDITIONS ROUGH HERE IN MIAMI SO DON'T VENTURE OUT AND STAY IN YOUR SAFE ROOM.  WE ARE IN THESE CONDITION FOR THROUGH TODAY SO BE PATIENT AND STAY SAFE!


Local Radar Local Radar

IRMA HURRICANE UPDATE 0622 AM EDT

 ...600 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 IRMA VERY NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...EYE OF IRMA ABOUT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 81.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has replaced the Hurricane Warning
for the Northwestern Bahamas with a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Northwestern Bahamas islands of Bimini and Grand Bahama.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Matanzas, and La Habana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the north-
northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected later today,
with that motion continuing through Monday.  On the forecast track,
the eye of Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys in the next
few hours, then move near or over the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula later today through tonight.  Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  While weakening is forecast, Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves through the
Florida Keys and and near the west coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).  The National Ocean Service station at Vaca Key
Florida recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a
gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).  A private anemometer at Alligator Reef
Light, Florida recently reported a wind gust of 88 mph (141 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
this morning.  Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of
the Florida Keys, and should spread northward over the remainder of
the Keys and the southern Florida peninsula during the next several
hours.  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through
Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Cuba...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The southern Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
The remainder of the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to
12 inches, isolated 16 inches.
The rest of Georgia, eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.
Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across
southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven