Thursday, September 14, 2017

JOSE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 UPDATE 11 PM EDT SEPT 14, 2017

...JOSE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...JOSE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A gradual
turn toward the north is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Jose is expected to regain hurricane status on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 25.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 25.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h).  A slower westward motion is forecast to begin on Friday and
continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

TROPICAL STORM JOSE AND INVEST 97L 00z MODEL RUN 1023 PM EDT 9/14/17


JOSE TRACK COMES REAL CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST AND CANNOT BE DISREGARDED.  THOSE WHO LIVE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR JOSE FUTURE TRACK.

STORM INVEST 97L 00Z MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.



STORM INVESTIGATION 97L

MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A STORM OUT AT SEA.  HOWEVER, IRMA'S TRACK WAS LIKE THAT AT FIRST THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER IRMA AND STEERED HER THIS WAY.   REAL FAR AWAY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS DISTURBANCE.



SORRY OUT FROM WORK TODAY LOWER BACK PAIN HERE IS JOSE UPDATE

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE...

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 67.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn
to the northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and
Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake