Friday, September 15, 2017

JOSE AND TROP DEPRESSION FOURTEEN UPDATE 11PM EDT

...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY... 

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 71.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A gradual turn toward the north
is expected over the next couple of days.

The estimated maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 


...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 30.7W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 30.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
a westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slightly strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

JOSE A HURRICANE AGAIN AND DEPRESSION 14 IS POORLY ORGANIZED 05 PM EDT

...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 70.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is
expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late
Saturday and toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast through
Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

 
...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND...
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 29.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and a west or west-northwest motion is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



18z MODEL FOR ALL SYSTEMS IN THE ATLANTIC 0357 PM EDT 9/15/2017

JOSE ABOVE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 BELOW
INVEST 96L BELOW SOON TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION

12z MODEL RUN FOR 96L IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

I BELIEVE THAT JOSE WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO FOLLOW BEHIND JOSE.  LETS HOPE I AM CORRECT.


JOSE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 UPDATE 11PM EDT 9/15/17

...JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 151452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF JOSE IS A
HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 69.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 69.4 West. Jose is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  This general
motion is expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest
by late Saturday and toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. An
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to
obtain a better wind speed estimate.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC......FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151433
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 28.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 28.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and a west or west-northwest motion is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake