Monday, September 18, 2017

HURRICANE UPDATE 1100 PM EDT 9/17/2017

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...JOSE RESUMES A NORTHWARD MOTION...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 71.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
* New Haven to Watch Hill

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 71.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This general motion is expected to
continue through Tuesday with a turn to the northeast forecast on
Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose is
forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula early
Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday but Jose
should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. This rainfall
could cause isolated flooding.  Jose is also expected to produce
total rain accumulations up to an inch or so along the northern
mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



 
...MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 190254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea on Tuesday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it approaches the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  Ham radio reports indicate significant damage to
structures has occurred in Dominica.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is
924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should continue over Dominica during
the next few hours.  Hurricane conditions should spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands
tonight and early Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions should spread
through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area Tuesday
and Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in
St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight, and are possible in
the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

HURRICANE UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/18/17


...JOSE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...JOSE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from Fenwick Island,
Delaware to Fire Island Inlet, New York.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
* New Haven to Watch Hill

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 71.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected during
the next day or so.  A turn to the northeast is expected to occur on
Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose is
forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and
Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday.  This rainfall
could cause isolated flooding.  Jose is also expected to produce
total rain accumulations up to 1 inch along the mid-Atlantic coast,
and from southeast New York to coastal Maine.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 
 

 
...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra,
and Vieques.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane
Warning for that island to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata, and a Tropical Storm Watch
west of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system.  Additional watches and warnings may be required later
tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
by satellite imagery and data from the French radar on Martinique
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.7 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Maria
is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica,
Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical
storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward
Islands.  Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday
through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight,
and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican
Republic on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven 
 





 

18Z MODEL RUN STILL SHOWS JOSE STUCK WITH NO WHERE TO GO

Jose will be a in a meandering state with no place to go!


Maria on track for a strike on the poor Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. 

COULD HURRICANE BETSY TRACK REPEAT ITSELF IF MARIA GETS BLOCKED?

I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH MARIA BUT BACK IN 1965 SEPT 13 HURRICANE BETSY WAS THOUGHT TO BE BY PASSING THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKED THE CYCLONES NORTHWARD TRACK AND LOOPED IT BACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  DEPENDING ON WHAT JOSE IS DOING TO THE NORTH OF MARIA AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH AND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND THAT TIME WILL DETERMINE MARIA'S FUTURE TRACK.  AS IT IS NOW IT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM FLORIDA.  HOWEVER, IF MARIA STALLS OUT A MEANDERS IN CIRCLES WELL ALL BETS ARE OFF IF HIGH PRESSURE STEERS THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST.  BRYAN NORCROSS WAS MENTIONING OF A FUZZY LONG RANGE FORECAST AND ANY THING COULD HAPPEN WITH UNCERTAIN TRACKS.

HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF A HURRICANE NAME BETSY BACK IN 1965 SEPT 13


HURRICANE UPDATES 1100 AM EDT SEPT 18, 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 181446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, to Hull, Massachusetts, including Block Island, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Watch Hill

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 71.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected
to continue during the next day or so.  A turn to the northeast is
expected to occur on Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks
of North Carolina today, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula
tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey
coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations up to 2 inches along
the mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal
Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 
 



 
 ...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING... 

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the U. S. Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the British Virgin Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning
for Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the Dominican
Republic should monitor the progress of this system.  Hurricane
Warnings will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby
islands this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across
the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph
(195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the
Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions
beginning during the next few hours.  Hurricane conditions should
spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight
through Tuesday night.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible later today or tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through
tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands, and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected
across Puerto Rico.  Maria is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to
Anguilla, eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, as well as the
Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven