Wednesday, September 20, 2017

MARIA FORECAST ADVISORY 0500 PM EDT 9/20/2017

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 202038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been
discontinued.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.  For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 67.3 West.  Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night.
A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will continue to move away from
the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening.  The center will
then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring
over portions of Puerto Rico.  Tropical storm conditions are
spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and
hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday,
with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

WINDFIELD RADIUS IF IT IS STILL THIS SIZE AT 02PM EDT 9/20/17

THIS WIND FIELD IS FROM THE 11 AM EDT ADVISORY SO IF IT REMAINS THIS SIZE A DIAMETER THEN MINUS THE CAT 4-5 WINDS IT WOULD BE LOOKING LIKE THIS.
 GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE ISLAND AND MOVING INTO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RTW


MARIA PRESENT POSITION AS OF 2PM EDT 9/20/17

Here is the past coordinate positions and present location of center of Maria as it entered the Atlantic.


12Z MODEL RUN FOR MARIA, AND THOSE OF YOU WORRIED ABOUT LEE

Maria's trackwell in agreement until the end of the forecast run where it could either turn back toward the U.S. or the northeast.  Florida has no worries!


Jose still meandering and model run a bit more complex not in well agreement all over the place but turning the cyclone back toward the U.S. mainland.


As for the remnants of Lee they seems to have a chance for development into a tropical cyclone but this system will not be a threat to land only to the shipping lanes.


MARIA UPDATE 1135 PM EDT SEPT 20 2017

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 201440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten.

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
inland over Puerto Rico near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 66.5
West.  Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h),
and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will move offshore of the northern coast of Puerto Rico during
the next couple of hours.  The center will then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday
and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous
major hurricane through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions starting in the hurricane
warning area tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday
evening.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

TORNADOES:  Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

THE EYE:  Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg