Friday, September 22, 2017

MARIA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 9/22/2017

...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


000
WTNT35 KNHC 222040
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 71.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 71.4 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  A turn toward the
north is forecast by Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
portions of the central Bahamas tonight.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands will subside through tonight as Maria
moves away from those islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Puerto Rico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 40 inches
Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches
Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches
Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, portions of the southeastern United
States coast, and Bermuda.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 




 

LATEST MAJOR STORM TRACK THAT AFFECTED LAND

The latest tracks of Harvey, Irma and Maria.  I will update Maria's end track when the storm finally disspates.


MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/22/2017

...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
warnings for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north by late Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's core
will move away from the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and pass
northeast and east of the Bahamas through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance
aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas and will continue through tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm
total amounts 40 inches
Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated
storm total amounts 20 inches
Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6
inches
Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches
Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches
Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells will reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg