Tuesday, September 26, 2017

TROPICAL STORM MARIA 05 PM EDT 09/26/17

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 73.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
tonight.  A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on
Wednesday, and a turn toward the east-northeast is anticipated on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east
of the coast of North Carolina during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slight weakening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Maria is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  NOAA buoy 41025
located about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported
a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(83 km/h).  A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently reported
at Manteo, North Carolina.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




 

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Today Sept 26

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 95°F. West wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Wednesday Sep 27

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. West northwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 78°F. South southwest wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Thursday Sep 28

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 94°F. Northwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Friday Sep 29

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 90°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.



Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 77°F. South wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.



Saturday Sep 30

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 92°F. South wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 79°F. North northeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Sunday Oct 1

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind 8 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Monday Oct 2

Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind 11 to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
 

HOW MUCH OF THE OUTER BANKS EXPERIENCES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS?

THIS GRAPHICS SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE OUTER BANKS AND MARIA TRACKS EAST OF THE BANKS.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1223 PM EDT 9/26/17

WILL BE MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN, GULF AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EVEN THOUGH AFTER SEPTEMBER THE FOCUS IS  ON THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF, AND NOT SO MUCH THE ATLANTIC.  REASONING FOR THIS IS, BECAUSE A WEAK LA NINA HAS KICKED IN AND THE ATLANTIC WATER REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AT THIS TIME.  THIS MAKES THE ATLANTIC CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  THERE IS ANOTHER PEAK IN OCTOBER BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SETTLE DOWN.  BUT SEEING HOW MUCH ENERGY IS LEFT BEHIND WE COULD SEE A LATE BUSY ENDING TO THE 2017 SEASON.  BE HURRICANE READY! 
RTW





MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 09/26/17

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Ocracoke Inlet to Cape
Hatteras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.   Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm within the
next day or so.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41025 located
about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a wind gust to 49 mph (80
km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning this afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown