ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 ...MARIA SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 72.1W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape Hatteras. All Storm Surge Watches and Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Hatteras to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds These warnings will likely be discontinued this evening. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 72.1 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. Maria is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward on Thursday through Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will move away from the coast of North Carolina through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primarily to the northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through the next few hours. These winds should diminish later this evening. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the North Carolina Outer Banks will gradually subside tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
MARIA 05 PM EDT UPDATE 9/27/17
...MARIA BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
EYES OF THE CARIBBEAN DISTURABANCE INTO NEXT WEEK
Quick
review of the new Storm Invest in the Caribbean I been mentioning for
the past week of so. Although some models do not suggest strong
development and more like a rain event, we need to monitor this area
closely seeing how this season has been thus far.
The sea surface temps in this region are 30-31°C or 86-88°F. Perfect fuel for tropical cyclone to develop and strengthen in.
We don't want any surprises and want to be ready specially those in the Florida straits that suffered the most from Irma. Remember this is a closer system to home and if it did develop and strengthen unexpectedly it would not give folks in the Florida straits ample time to get out. Luckily we have a large land mass between this system and Florida.
Upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable north of the Grand Bahamas as this system tracks north-northwest toward the east of Florida maybe that will not give it much time to develop.
I am not trying to hype things up, its just this season, I have learned not to trust, any of these so called weak developing system. Good example of that is baby major Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic. That system was written off then it made a come back and reached major storm status this morning. So please stay tuned to local news via TV or local radio and I will do my best to keep you up to date in the coming days.
RTW
The sea surface temps in this region are 30-31°C or 86-88°F. Perfect fuel for tropical cyclone to develop and strengthen in.
We don't want any surprises and want to be ready specially those in the Florida straits that suffered the most from Irma. Remember this is a closer system to home and if it did develop and strengthen unexpectedly it would not give folks in the Florida straits ample time to get out. Luckily we have a large land mass between this system and Florida.
Upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable north of the Grand Bahamas as this system tracks north-northwest toward the east of Florida maybe that will not give it much time to develop.
I am not trying to hype things up, its just this season, I have learned not to trust, any of these so called weak developing system. Good example of that is baby major Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic. That system was written off then it made a come back and reached major storm status this morning. So please stay tuned to local news via TV or local radio and I will do my best to keep you up to date in the coming days.
RTW
...LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 ...LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 56.8W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1765 MI...2845 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 56.8 West. Lee is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Lee should turn to the north on Thursday and accelerate to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
MARIA 11 AM EDT 9/27/17
...MARIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
000 WTNT35 KNHC 271448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 ...MARIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 72.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Ocracoke Inlet. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of Ocracoke Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Cape Hatteras to Duck A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.6 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. Maria is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, Maria will begin to move away from the coast of North Carolina later today and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primary to the northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). An observing site at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocracoke Inlet to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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