Thursday, September 28, 2017

STORM INVEST 99L 1045 PM EDT 9/28/17

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282326
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles west-northwest of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lee, located over
the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-northeast of
Bermuda.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to the Florida
Straits is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with
an upper-level low.  A weak area of low pressure is likely to form
from this weather system near the Florida Straits on Friday, and it
is forecast to move northward near the east coast of the Florida
Peninsula through Saturday.  Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for some development during the next couple of days,
before upper-level winds become less favorable on Sunday.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 


 

MONITORING INVEST 99L NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST

 STORM INVESTIGATION 99L

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST THAT MOVED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE A FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE STATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES  ON THIS SYSTEM.


ELSEWHERE WE HAVE MARIA FINALLY LEAVING AND LEE REMAINS A NO THREAT TO LAND HURRICANE.

WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO IN OCTOBER FOR UNWELCOME TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1216 PM EDT 09/28/17

STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.  I SAY WEAK DEVELOPMENT BUT IT COULD BE A GUSTY AND WET DISTURBANCE THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF FLORIDA. 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

BRYAN NORCROSS UPDATE ON MARIA AND CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE

Thursday update on TROPICAL STORM MARIA and FUTURE TROPICS: Maria is moving away from the U.S. East Coast. The high winds have already moved offshore, but the ocean will remain agitated and dangerous as strong swells continue to impact the coast. The elevated water levels around the Outer Banks will slowly decrease, but some minor sound-side flooding could still occur today at high tide. Maria is forecast to be a memory by the end of the weekend.
Cooler air will move in as Maria moves out, though it’s not the end of the oddly warm fall in the East. Another round of unusually warm weather is coming.

Over the weekend, we’ll keep an eye on the waters around Florida. A cold front moving south may meet up with a weak disturbance in the tropics to form a low-pressure system with some tropical-development potential. The odds are not high that a significant storm would form, but it’s not impossible that we get a rainy, gusty disturbance.

In the long range, another unusually strong and hot high-pressure system is forecast to cover a good part of the Midwest, East, and Southeast. If the forecast is right, on the south side of the heat bubble, a noticeably strong, persistent east wind will set up over Florida, and south of that the atmospheric pattern could be favorable for tropical development. That would be at the end of next week.
Stay tuned. Hurricane season isn’t over yet.