000 ABNT20 KNHC 282326 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to the Florida Straits is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system near the Florida Straits on Friday, and it is forecast to move northward near the east coast of the Florida Peninsula through Saturday. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development during the next couple of days, before upper-level winds become less favorable on Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Thursday, September 28, 2017
STORM INVEST 99L 1045 PM EDT 9/28/17
MONITORING INVEST 99L NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST
STORM INVESTIGATION 99L
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST THAT MOVED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE A FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE STATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE MARIA FINALLY LEAVING AND LEE REMAINS A NO THREAT TO LAND HURRICANE.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO IN OCTOBER FOR UNWELCOME TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST THAT MOVED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE A FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE STATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE MARIA FINALLY LEAVING AND LEE REMAINS A NO THREAT TO LAND HURRICANE.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO IN OCTOBER FOR UNWELCOME TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1216 PM EDT 09/28/17
STILL MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. I SAY WEAK DEVELOPMENT BUT IT COULD BE A GUSTY AND WET DISTURBANCE THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF FLORIDA.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
BRYAN NORCROSS UPDATE ON MARIA AND CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE
Bryan Norcross added 2 new photos.
Cooler air will move in as Maria moves out, though it’s not the end of the oddly warm fall in the East. Another round of unusually warm weather is coming.
Over the weekend, we’ll keep an eye on the waters around Florida. A cold front moving south may meet up with a weak disturbance in the tropics to form a low-pressure system with some tropical-development potential. The odds are not high that a significant storm would form, but it’s not impossible that we get a rainy, gusty disturbance.
In the long range, another unusually strong and hot high-pressure system is forecast to cover a good part of the Midwest, East, and Southeast. If the forecast is right, on the south side of the heat bubble, a noticeably strong, persistent east wind will set up over Florida, and south of that the atmospheric pattern could be favorable for tropical development. That would be at the end of next week.
Stay tuned. Hurricane season isn’t over yet.
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