000 ABNT20 KNHC 292324 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Maria, located over the Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Tropical Storm Lee, located over the north Atlantic Ocean about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Azores. A weak low pressure area over the southern Florida Peninsula is interacting with an upper-level low to produce a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward through the Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for some additional development before the upper-level winds become unfavorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula during the next several days while the system moves northwestward to northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters. There are no signs of organization and upper-level winds are not currently conducive for development. However, conditions could become a little more favorable for some development next week while the wave moves toward the west-northwest. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Friday, September 29, 2017
STORM INVEST 99L 1100 PM EDT 9/29/17
MONITORING TWO AREA IN THE TROPICS 1212 PM EDT 9/29/17
1. I am still monitoring Storm Investigation 99L off the Southwest Florida Coast . Some development is possible as it track along the coast but so far so far it does look like it will be a strong system. looking at a depression may be a tropical storm at this time. Let's not drop our guard thou since things could change.
2. Also monitoring a strong wave east of the Lesser Antilles that is interacting with an upper level low southwest of Puerto Rico. This system is forecast to track northwest over Puerto Rico and bring unwanted heavy rains to the island. This system will also be monitored for tropical cyclone formation. It has a 0% chance within the next 48 hrs and a 20% chance within 5 days.
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
000 ABNT20 KNHC 291145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the north Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southeast of Newfoundland. A broad trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers. This activity extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across western Cuba to the southern Florida peninsula. This trough has moved slowly westward since yesterday, and a weak low is now likely to form from this system near the west coast of Florida during the weekend. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development of the low before the upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although there are no signs of organization and surface pressures are not falling at this time, conditions could become a little more favorable for some development next week while the system moves toward the west-northwest. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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