Friday, October 13, 2017

THIS MODEL SUGGESTING COLD AIR FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST

THIS COLD AIR IS FORECAST FOR OCT 28, 2017


TROPICAL OUTLOOK 0336 PM EDT 10/13/17

1. I WILL POST OPHELIA TRACK MAP AS SOON AS IT IS READY AND WILL POST IT ON THE WEBSITE SITE.  JUST CLICK ON (RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS) AT TOP OF SITE WHERE NAVIGATION BUTTONS ARE LOCATED.  I ALREADY POSTED THE 18Z MODEL RUN THERE. 

2. AS FOR THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MAY BRING FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SQUALLS AS THE WAVES AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  THERE SEEMS TO BE AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT MAY BE DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD SPEED THIS WAVE IS TRAVELING AT. 

THAT ALSO PRODUCES WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HINDERS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

SO FAR NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST.  BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND.
RTW








TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1143 AM EDT OCT 13, 2017

1.  OPHELIA ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST.  IRELAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR OPHELIA FUTURE TRACK.

2. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT I STARTED POSTING ON YESTERDAY IS NOW BEING MONITORED BY NHC AS WELL.  NHC IS GIVING THIS WAVE A LOW CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 48HRS AND A LOW 30% CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS.  I WILL KEEP A WATCH ON IT.

RTW