Friday, October 20, 2017

LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN STILL SHOWING SOMETHING COMING UP FROM CARIBBEAN


12Z GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORM BEING PULLED UP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CMC MODEL WHICH IS NOT A GOOD INTENSITY MODEL TENDS TO EXAGGERATE AND TRACKS A HURRICANE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 

I LIKE THE CMC FOR MODEL FOR EARLY WARNING OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS NOT ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO INTENSITY OR GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

RTW



MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A DIP IN THE JET STREAM FOR THURSDAY!

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT THERE WILL BE A DIP IN THE JET STREAM BY NEXT THURSDAY THAT COULD POSSIBLY USHER IN COOLER AIR SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THOSE OF YOUR THAT WANT SOME COOLER AIR CROSS YOUR FINGERS.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 20, 2017 1021 AM EDT

TROPICS GIVING US A BREAK AS IT CHARGES UP TO RELEASE MORE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY BY NEXT WEEK.  I WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR HINTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAYBE A DEPRESSION TRACKING NORTH BETWEEN THE YUCATAN WESTERN CUBA AND MERGING WITH A FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS FLORIDA.  ANOTHER MODEL SUGGEST A TROPICAL STORM MAYBE A HURRICANE TRACKING NORTH OVER CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

I DO HAVE TO CAUTION YOU THOU!  MODEL FORECAST CHANGE EVERY RUN AND I ALWAYS LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE, HOWEVER AT TIMES IT TURNS OUT NOT BEING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.  BUT SINCE WE ARE STILL IN HURRICANE SEASON AND OCTOBER IS MOST DEFINITELY A MONTH TO WATCH IF YOU LIVE IN CUBA AND FLORIDA YOU NEED TO BE STORM READY.  SO CHECK BACK DAILY FOR UPDATES.
RTW 

CAUTION...THESE FORECAST ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE SO DON'T PANIC WITH THE ONE THAT SHOWS A STORM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.