000 WTNT33 KNHC 280240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 84.4W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 84.4 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected Saturday morning, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast later on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Friday, October 27, 2017
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN OCT 27, 2017 1053 PM EDT
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN OCT 27, 2017 0500 PM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 272044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
EYES ON THE TROPICS OCT 27, 2017 0339 PM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271719 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday. Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
EYES ON THE TROPICS OCT 27, 2017 1004 PM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271123 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC AC 270524
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least a marginal risk of severe weather may
impact southern Florida and the Keys late Saturday afternoon and
evening.
...South Florida...
A positive-tilt synoptic trough currently from the upper MS Valley
to the southern Rockies will undergo further amplification. By 12Z
Saturday this feature will extend from the Great Lakes to the lower
MS Valley and will advance slowly east during the day. Downstream
cold front will stretch from a surface low over the Great Lakes to
the central Gulf early Saturday and approach the Atlantic seaboard
by the end of this period. Preceding the upper trough, a
southern-stream perturbation accompanied by a weak surface low will
emerge from the Caribbean. A warm front will lift north through
southern FL in advance of the low with near 70F dewpoints spreading
inland contributing to destabilization. However, instability will
remain weak owing to widespread clouds and areas of
showers/thunderstorms. Surface-2 km hodograph size will increase by
early evening over south FL in vicinity of the warm front as the
low-level jet strengthens in association with the approaching
surface low, though winds aloft will remain modest. Given the moist
boundary layer and favorable low-level wind profiles expected to
evolve by Saturday evening, some potential exists for convection
developing in this environment to produce a couple of brief
tornadoes. The anticipated weak thermodynamic environment precludes
more than a marginal risk category at this time.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Event: | Hydrologic Outlook | ||
Alert: | ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A tropical disturbance over the Western Caribbean Sea is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move slowly north northeast and be near South Florida on Saturday. This disturbance will bring deep tropical moisture to the area leading to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, mainly Saturday and Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to be between 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts with any training thunderstorms. If this trend continues for South Florida, then a Flood Watch may be needed later today or tonight for Saturday. | ||
Instructions: | |||
Target Area: |
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