Saturday, October 28, 2017

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OCT 28, 2017 1100 PM EDT

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


000
WTNT33 KNHC 290240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 82.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A turn
toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a
rapid motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  However,
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including
the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches are expected through Sunday.  These rainfall
totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across
portions of western and central Cuba, which may lead to life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South
Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



So far all the stronger winds are east of the center and most of the stronger storms are over Central Cuba.  So far as it looks now if it stays on its present track these stronger storms to the southeast of center will remain away for South Florida.  Dry air moving in behind the storm as the front approaches the west coast of Florida.  Off and on rains can occur over night and at time maybe heavy some cells could be strong to maybe severe...RTW

Local Radar

18z MODEL RUN OCT 28, 2017 0411 PM EDT

I won't be home for the 0500 PM EDT update so here is the latest position and models for Tropical Depression Eighteen.  Track has shifted a bit more to the left we will see if that track continues.  At this time it really doesn't matter where it tracks because we are not looking at a major storm here.  

This system main concern, is heavy rains and flash flooding, and the possibility of isolated tornado's with some of the severe cells.  

Miami-Dade is catching a break from the first batch of rains that is now moved north of the area, but as the low tracks close to us then the rains to our south will increase over the area this evening.  

Upper Keys and Southeast Florida is presently still under a tropical storm watch. keep your NOAA weather radio on alert and monitor radio and local media for updates...RTW









...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...NHC

2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 28
Location: 21.8°N 82.4°W
Moving: NNE at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Local Radar

12z TRACK POSITION AND MODEL RUN OCT 28, 2017 0920 AM EDT

HERE IS THE LATEST TRACK POSITION AND MODEL RUN:




LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OCT 28, 2017 0834 AM EDT

LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEPRESSION BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED.  TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS IN THE MAKING AS WE SPEAK.  TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRACKING NORTH OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE STORMS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.  THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO'S.  STAY TUNED TO RADIO, LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF PHILIPPE AND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF.  SO MARINERS TIE DOWN YOUR VESSELS OR STORE IT IN A SAFE PLACE....RTW



Local Radar

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN UPDATE OCT 28, 2017 0753 AM EDT


...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 281142
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.7 North, longitude 84.0 West.  The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A motion toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today
and continue through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center will
move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of
Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today.  An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
assess the strength of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 

 06Z MODEL RUN



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK:

FLUS42 KMFL 280913
HWOMFL

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
282115-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...Deteriorating Conditions as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 Approaches...
...Isolated Tornadoes Possible This Afternoon and Evening...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 over the northwestern 
Caribbean is forecast to move north-northeast across western Cuba 
later today, and into the Florida Straits and Northwestern Bahamas
late tonight. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms from this 
system are expected to overspread South Florida starting later this 
morning, and continue through the overnight hours. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and
isolated tornadoes.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible today, 
especially this afternoon and evening. 

Wind: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening, which may produce wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. In
addition, conditions will become hazardous over the local Atlantic
and Gulf waters as sustained winds increase with the approach and 
passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. A Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters. 

Flooding: There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of streets 
and poor drainage areas due to heavy rainfall this afternoon and
tonight. The heaviest rainfall may lead to to substantial ponding of
water, leading to lane closures on roadways, especially in the most 
vulnerable areas. 

Waves: Seas will build to 7 to 11 feet well offshore Miami-Dade
County as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to cross through
the local Atlantic waters late this evening and overnight. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to move quickly away from
the region early Sunday morning, followed by another strong cold 
frontal passage by Sunday afternoon. 

Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous 
conditons over the local Gulf waters, as well as continue hazardous 
conditions over the local Atlantic waters, into Monday. The Atlantic
rip current risk is expected to remain moderate this weekend, with
the rip current risk over the Gulf increasing behind the front early
next week. 

Cool and dry conditions behind the front may allow low temperatures
Monday morning to drop into the mid to upper 40s across interior Palm
Beach, Glades, and Hendry Counties. RH values may also drop into the
30-35 percent range across portions of South Florida Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the 
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami 
website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
 During a tropical cyclone situation, view the Hurricane Local Statement for additional hazard details.