Tuesday, November 14, 2017

INVEST 96L MODEL UPDATE 0438 PM EST NOV 14, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized
today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
250 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system still has some
potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or
so before upper-level winds become unfavorable. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

Forecaster Brennan 


 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOV 14, 2017 1223 PM EST

There still is a trough of low pressure in the southern Caribbean.  Development is not likely at this time.  A series of cold fronts that will dip south in the coming weeks will prevent this system from tracking northwest or into the Gulf.  We are looking good.

Correct to last:
As for INVEST 96L South-Southwest of the Azores will be short lived as upper level wind shear increases over the area in the coming days.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization during
the past several hours in association with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south-southwest of the Azores. This system
still has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds to
near gale force during the next day or two while it moves slowly
northeastward. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

Forecaster Brennan 
 




COLD AIR BLAST STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING AND MONTH END

GFS AND EURO MODEL STILL INDICATING CANADIAN COLD AIR TO INVADE THE EAST, NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.

TRAVEL DISRUPTION LIKELY THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS DIP EAST AND SOUTH.