Friday, September 28, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 28, 2018... 0955 AM EDT


Kirk continues to track away from the islands but squally and rainy conditions still persist as the storms remain east of the center.  

Kirk is gradually falling apart and could become an open trough at anytime as the upper level shear is present throughout the Caribbean...RTW








Thursday, September 27, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 27, 2018... 0406 PM EDT



Exposed center of Kirk approaching the islands and the thunderstorms are right behind it.

We can call this the calm before the storm in a weird way since most tropical systems you experience the outer bands ahead of the center.  In this case the center is exposed so the islands will feel a calm until the center passes then a rapid change in the weather with heavy rains, squally conditions with strong gust to tropical storm force will occur.

I been noticing in the latest color satellite imagery that the thunderstorms east and northeast of center have caught up to center and are trying to rap around the northeast side of the center. 

This could be due to a slowing of the forward speed of the storm on approach to the islands or the wind shear relaxed a bit allowing for the thunderstorms to catch up with the center.  Regardless of this, the upper level conditions are still forecast to be strong in the Caribbean and weakening and possible dissipation of this system is possible...RTW




 



TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 27, 2018...1014 AM EDT


Kirk has not changed much over night since it is moving through a shear environment.

Strong westely and southwesterly wind shear continues to separate the thunderstorms from Kirk's enter of circulation.  In fact you can see that on this mornings visible satellite as daylight shines down on Earth.  

The center is totally exposed while all the thunderstorms are pushed off to the east of the center.  Kirk is forecast to weaken to a depression or an open wave as it moves across the islands if not sooner. Remember a healthy storm system has thunderstorms surrounding the center and this is not happening with Kirk.

However, those colder cloud tops east of center if they don't warm and weaken, will pass over the islands and bring strong Gusty winds to tropical storm force.

Localized heavy rains and squally conditions will spread across the islands later today...RTW










Wednesday, September 26, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018 11.56 PM EDT


Kirk continues to gradually weaken as it tracks into a hostile shear environment near the Lesser Antilles and the Eastern Caribbean.  I mentioned this in my previous afternoon update.  Air Force Recon found rising pressure around 0800 PM EDT and now a weaker tropical storm at 11 PM EDT.

Satellite shows another small burst of convection as Kirk makes another attempt at reorganization and a temporary strengthening. This won't last long as relentless wind shear begins to separate the colder cloud tops from the center of circulation.   As the storm system weakens the wind field expands in coverage.

Squally conditions and localized heavy rains will begin to spread across the islands as early as tomorrow evening...RTW






TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018...0448 PM EDT


This update will be dedicated to Kirk since it's the only storm system threatening land.

Kirk has been gradually strengthening even though it has been encountering southwesterly shear.

Satellite this afternoon shows upper level winds disrupting the west quadrant of the tropical cyclone, and these winds are increasing as Kirk reaches the islands.

Kirk is forecast to pass over the islands as a tropical storm but the likelihood of further strengthening is low.  Upper level shear in the Eastern Caribbean is very hostile and this should weaken Kirk to a depression and eventually to remnant low.  Most models show Kirk dissipating in the Caribbean.

Residents of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands should prepare for tropical storm conditions and localized heavy rainfall...RTW










TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018...0910 AM EDT


Kirk restrengthens to a tropical storm last night.  Kirk will be a short live tropical storm as it moves into the Eastern Caribbean.  Upper level wind shear will be present and Kirk is forecast to dissipate...RTW

98L off near the outer Banks and void of thunderstorms on the west side of this system.  This means that all the heavy rains and storms remain to the east of the weak center...RTW

Post tropical Leslie will more than likely be be replaced by a new and stronger low and will be named Michael if that occurs.  This storm system will be meander for days on end until a frontal boundary comes aalon and sweeps it to the northeast...RTW