Friday, November 30, 2018

DESTRUCTIVE 2018 HURRICANE SEASON COMES TO AN END TODAY

Tropical Outlook:
The tropical Atlantic, Carbbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico remains quiet!



The end of the 2018 hurricane Season comes to a close today Nov 30, 2018, and predictions
we're slightly off.

It was first thought to be slightly below average season, but as August and September the peak of hurricane season came around they started popping like popcorn across the Atlantic.  This made it an average to slightly above average season but not by much.

However, as we say, "all it takes is one" or in this case two to turn you life upside down,  and those were Florence and Michael our only two Major hurricanes this season. 

Between both hurricanes their we're 154 death and an approximate total of destruction cost of $33.27 billion in 2018 US Dollars.

I think the death total was kind of high for living in this generation of technology/ weather forecasting tools and awareness of the danger storm surge and rainfall in a hurricane can cause.  I believe this is due to ignorance, and those that think experts are hyping the warnings. 

We have seen this happen where they say it's going to be bad storm and it ends up being nothing like they said it was going to be, so people become complacent and because it was not bad they think I survive this storm I can survive others.  That to me is a bad assumption on those who think that way!

We can't really blame the experts  because every hurricane does not behave the same as the other, and this is due to uncertain, and complex atmospheric conditions that are constantly changing.

Yes forecast are becoming better and more accurate every year but there are still those variables in the weather that I call monkey wrenches that can through off a forecast. 

Remember no matter how accurate forecast becomes throughout the years it will never be a perfect science. 

So this is why you must not become complacent and ignore evacuation and preparation advice given by those that are there to warn you from impending landfall threat.

Always enter every hurricane season prepared and with a plan of action, and always heed the advice, and leave if told to evcuate. 

Lets keep those death toll numbers down and not become a statistic.  Never under estimate the power of one of these storms big or small.

Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

Seasonal statistics
Total depressions16
Total storms15
Hurricanes8
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
2
Total fatalities154 total
Total damage> $33.27 billion (2018 USD)



Thursday, November 29, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE NOV 29, 2018...0238 PM EST

Tropical Outlook:

The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season tomorrow Nov 30.






Tuesday, November 27, 2018

TEMPS DROPPING IN MIAMI THIS LATE AFTERNOON

Temps dropping to the lower 50s in Miami-Dade tonight with the passing of a strong cold front.  At this time 0341 PM Miami is in the upper 60s. By morning Wednesday temps are expected to be lower 50s and mid 60s during the day struggling to reach 70.  So bundle up the kids tomorrow Wednesday for school.  The front will be a short one only two days in the 50s then back to the 80s by the weekend...RTW


TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 27, 2018...1025 AM EST

Tropical Outlook:

The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season.  There are no signs of tropical development... RTW


Friday, November 23, 2018

TROPICSL OUTLOOK NOV 23, 2018...1131 AM EST


The tropics remains quiet, however, models are still suggesting low pressure developing in the Western Gulf of Mexico and tracking toward the west-northwest and across Florida.  NHC is monitoring an area near the for low chance for development with five day.  Probably associated with gulf low.  See below models and NHC potential development map...RTW






Wednesday, November 21, 2018

HAPPY THANKSGIVING 2018 FROM RTW


TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 21, 2018...1050 AM EST


TROPICAL OUTLOOK:

I don't see any signs of development at this time.

However, the EURO model is hinting at the development of a small low pressure coming out of the Bay of Campeche or Southern Gulf of Mexico.

If this low were to develop and stay on this forecast track, it would take a path across Southern Florida.

None of the models are hinting on the development of this low.

Since it is the EURO model hinting on development I will monitor it as we near the end of this destructive hurricane season...RTW







Tuesday, November 20, 2018

COOLER TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING


Cooler temps tomorrow Nov 21 as a cool front passes through tonight.  Temps will be in the mid to upper 60s.  Showers and maybe thunderstorm ahead of front.  RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 20, 2018...1029 AM EST

Tropical Outlook:

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical cyclone formation not expected through Thursday...RTW

Maps courtesy of Intellicast WSI


Monday, November 19, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 19, 2018...1020 EST



There are no signs of tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday...RTW




Friday, November 16, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 16, 2018...1153 AM EST


Tropical Outlook:

Please note what you see on surface map in yellow is what I added and is not official and part of what Intellicast WSI plubishes.  I am just borrowing their maps.  RTW

All I see in he tropics is the remnants of what use to be Invest 96L. 

This area of disorganized showers is not showing signs of organization and will eventually be swept out to sea by up coming fronts.  Mean while it will sit east of the Bahamas. 

In the Caribbean there are no tropical waves just a trough of low pressure.  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW



Thursday, November 15, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 15, 2018


Tropical Wave:
A tropical near 80-79 degrees west is not showing any signs of tropical cyclone formation.

Eslewhere in the tropics all remains quiet.  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.
RTW



Wednesday, November 14, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 14, 2018...0923 AM EST



Tropical Wave and trough:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave along 67 degrees west is interacting with a mid to upper level trough of low pressure  near Puerto Rico. 

This trough (invest 96L) is producing scattered showers and storms over Puerto Rico, the Caribbean and over the Atlantic waters to the northeast of east Dominican.  Non of the models are suggesting development from this system and it will more than likely become absorbed by a front in the Gulf of Mexico forecast to sweep east across Florida.  This system has a low chance for development 10% within 48 hrs and within 5- days.
RTW






Monday, November 12, 2018

STORM INVESTIGATION 96L NOV 12, 2018...1251 PM EST

Storm Invest 96L
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 121729
TWOSPN

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo Tropical 
Emitido por El Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami, FL 
Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan, PR 
100 PM EST lunes 12 de noviembre de 2018   

Para el Atlantico Norte...Mar Caribe y Golfo de Mexico: 

Una onda tropical localizada a alrededor de 200 millas al este de 
las Islas de Sotavento continua produciendo un area amplia de mal 
tiempo sobre la mayoria del Oceano Atlantico oeste tropical. Aunque 
se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales se tornen mas 
favorables para que se forme una depresion tropical durante los 
proximos dias, interaccion con tierra pudiera limitar la formacion 
de ciclon tropical. Se pronostica que el disturbio se mueva hacia el 
oeste a oeste noroeste durante los proximos dias, pasando cerca o al 
norte de las Islas de Sotavento, Puerto Rico, La Espanola, y el 
sureste de las Bahamas. Intereses en estas areas deben seguir de 
cerca el progreso de este sistema.
* Probabilidad de formacion en 48 horas...mediana...50 por ciento
* Probabilidad de formacion en 5 dias...alta...80 por ciento

$$

Pronosticador Stewart