National Hurricane Center
789
AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
extending from 09N-21N along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A
700 mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan
dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave.
A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 07N-21N along 48W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is developing
along and south of 10N mainly near the monsoon trough.
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
08N-20N along 63W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Intrusion
of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are W of the wave axis
from 06N-11N between 60W-65W.
A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south
of 21N along 84W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 09N-12N
between 80W-85W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W
to 11N22W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 08N60W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section
above, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge prevails across the basin with 5-10 kt
anticyclonic winds prevailing mainly across the eastern gulf. A
stationary front is just N of the Florida Panhandle, enhancing
convection north of 29N and east of 88W. Scattered showers remain
over Florida. A surface trough extends across the Florida
Keys/Straits from 22N85W to 26N81W with scattered showers. Mostly
fair weather prevails elsewhere. This weather pattern will
continue over the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the
Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move
into this region by Sunday.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent
environment aloft are supporting scattered showers over the NW
Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. In the southwest
Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers
south of 12N between 76W-85W. This activity is also related to a
tropical wave, currently extending along 84W. Isolated showers
are occurring over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba due to an upper-
level low centered north of Hispaniola near 21N71W. A tropical
wave is over the E Caribbean along 64W. Another tropical wave
will enter the east Caribbean by late Sunday. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast for the south-central basin through the
weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers
north of 25N W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates
the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered near 38N48W. Surface ridging will dominate the central
and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry
conditions.
For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
ERA
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The tropics remains suppressed by African dust and dry air...RTW
