National Hurricane Center
204
AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers near the monsoon trough are from 06N
to 10N between 30W and 37W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 20N between 45W and 56W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The middle part of the
tropical wave is moving through Honduras and El Salvador. The
northern part is set to move into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 15N23W just to the southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N27W and 08N41W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N41W to 06N48W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 30W and
37W, and from 07N to 10N between 41W and 44W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers from 06N to 10N between 50W and 59W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a
frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas,
parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the
Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the
periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast,
to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico.
A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.
The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough,
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to midnight.
A surface trough will meander over the central Gulf
through Fri. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
likely in the vicinity of the trough.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic
circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near
western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to
10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the
central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. Scattered showers
from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
50W and 80W.
A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
33N66W.
Trade winds across the region will diminish through
Saturday, as the current 32N/33N ridge, between 20W and 70W
across the Atlantic Ocean, weakens and lifts northward.
For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Sahara dust on the move westward large area of dust see tropic map
on Ralph's Tropical Weather website.
