National Hurricane Center
859
AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N
southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for
the details about the precipitation.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 17N
southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for
the details about the precipitation.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 19N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover
the waters from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 20N
southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing
upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between
55W and 72W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 20N
southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing
upper level cyclonic wind flow.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Mauritania near near 16N16W, to 10N28W and 09N33W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N33W to 09N38W 11N49W, and 12N55W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm
to 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 13N20W to
09N27W to 09N32W to 07N35W. isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N southward between 35W and 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough passes through the Texas coastal plains,
into Mexico near 20N103W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the areas from the Texas coastal plains and coastal waters, into
central Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.
A surface trough is along 28N85W 25N85W 22N86W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W eastward.
The current 28N85W 22N86W surface trough will move westward
across the southern and central waters through Sunday night,
accompanied by scattered rainshowers with thunder. Surface
troughs moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh
to locally strong wind speeds in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from the evenings to late at night during the next few
days. Surface high pressure will prevail.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, remaining for the upper level trough of the last
few days. Middle level cyclonic wind flow is in the coastal areas
and inland areas of Honduras and Nicaragua. scattered strong
rainshowers cover the areas that are from 14N to 18N between 82W
and 86W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Honduras
and Nicaragua.
An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N63W
cyclonic circulation center, into the eastern Caribbean Sea, to
the coast of Venezuela along 67W/68W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between
55W and 72W. A tropical wave is along 55W/56W, moving into the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between Cuba,
Haiti, and Jamaica.
The monsoon trough is along 09N74W to 09N79W, beyond 10N86W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
Honduras-Nicaragua precipitation, from 12N southward from 75W
westward.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday
night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near
12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach
10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday
night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Bahamas northward
between 71W and 76W.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N44W. Large-
scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 20W and 60W. A stationary front is along 33N37W
31N40W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 32N45W. The
stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N51W. A cold front continues from the 1015 mb low
pressure center, to 28N56W, 28N60W, to 32N70W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward between 39W and 52W. isolated moderate
rainshowers accompany the cold front from 26N northward between
50W and 70W.
The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern
coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken,
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will
weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak
low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week.
A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as
the trough dissipates.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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INVEST 97L
020
ABNT20 KNHC 041747
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains
limited. However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next
day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over
warm water through Tuesday. Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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