National Hurricane Center
962
AXNT20 KNHC 081725
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...Tropical Storm Debby...
Debby is located near 41.2N/48.3W as of 08/1500 UTC. Estimated
minimum pressure is 1003 mb, moving northeast at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Debby is expected
to continue moving northeast through tomorrow while weakening. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
...Caribbean Gale Warning...
Gale force winds will develop once again by 09/00Z over the area
north of Colombia from 11N-13N between 70W-76W. These conditions
will continue through Thursday morning. Please see the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N31W
to 06N35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The northern part of the wave is
affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. Scattered showers are noted
in the area where the wave meets the monsoon trough along 10N.
A tropical wave axis in the central Atlantic extends from 19N47W
to 07N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined
inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave
also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The
wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. No significant
convection is observed with this wave at this time.
A low amplitude tropical wave has entered Venezuela, extending
its axis from 11N63W to 04N64W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave
continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust.
No significant convection is observed with this wave at this
time.
A tropical wave axis in the W Caribbean extends from 19N85W to
05N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment
as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. It is also under an upper-level
diffluent environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 13N-21N between 83W-89W, and in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough mainly south of 10N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 22N17W and
extends southwestward to 10N33W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical
wave near 08N37W and continues to 09N46W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are
observed within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic into
the basin. A surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from
24N97W to 20N96W with scattered showers prevailing mainly west of
94W. An upper-level low centered over the Straits of Florida near
24N82W, enhancing convection across the Yucatan Channel.
A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula from the
early evenings to overnight hours for the next several days. A
surge of fresh to occasionally strong winds will be associated
with this trough. High pressure ridging will prevail across the
area through the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. Gale force winds will develop again
tonight. Please read the Special Features section above for
details.
The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate
convection south of 10N and west of 80W. This pattern will
continue through the week. The next tropical wave is forecast to
reach the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by early Friday, and
move across these islands this weekend.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Tropical storm Debby is over the north-central Atlantic. Refer to
the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. See the section above for details.
A 1021 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 26N72W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 43N27W. Little change is
expected through the next 24-48 hours.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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