National Hurricane Center
276
AXNT20 KNHC 101731
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W S of 20N. The
position is in line with the long-loop satellite imagery and the
model diagnostics. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to
17N between 20W and 30W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W S of 12N, moving
W 15 knots. This is a low amplitude and low latitude wave. Any
nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 19N, moving
W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is
apparent in satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 18N between 57W and
63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from
16N southward between 60W and 67W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 07N41W. The ITCZ is along
07N45W 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to 11N between 50W and
54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N
to 10N between 33W and 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
except for the SW corner of the area. A 1019 mb high pressure
center is near 26N85W in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico
near 26N86W.
Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 27N southward between 90W and land.
A weakening upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N85W. The cyclonic center was comparatively much more well-
defined 24 hours ago. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 27N81W in
Florida, to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the
Florida Panhandle, to 28N96W off the coast of Texas.
A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next
week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. A nocturnal trough moving off
the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE
to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough extends from a 23N68W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola, to 15N71W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward between 63W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the Caribbean Sea, in parts of Hispaniola, and in the Atlantic
Ocean from 17N northward between 60W and 76W.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward
from 76W westward.
High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
early next week. One tropical wave, moving into the eastern
Caribbean Sea today, will reach the central Caribbean Sea late on
Saturday, and then pass to the west of the region on Tuesday.
A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Monday. The winds will approach gale force on Sunday night and
Monday morning along the coast of Colombia as the pressure
gradient tightens.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward between Bermuda
and the U.S.A. A frontal boundary is to the north of the area.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 25N northward between Bermuda and the U.S.A.
An upper level trough extends from a 33N50W cyclonic circulation
center to 28N55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 44W and 63W.
A surface ridge passes through 32N39W to 30N46W 27N63W, beyond
Lake Okeechobee in south Florida.
The current 32N39W-30N46W-27N63W-to-Lake Okeechobee surface ridge
will shift southward today, ahead of a surface trough that is
forecast to move off the southeast coast of the U.S.A. on
Saturday. The ridge then will move N to 28N through early next
week.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATIONS
396
ABNT20 KNHC 101743
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some
gradual development is possible after that time while the system
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
central Atlantic in a few days. The low could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics while moving slowly
northeastward for couple of days thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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The tropics remains about the same but there are two areas
being monitored now. One of them is an area of showers and storms
over the Central Atlantic and a mid-to upper level swirl of low pressure
over the north Atlantic. Development of the Central Atlantic system
if any should be short lived and also with the N. Atlantic system...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
