Thursday, August 23, 2018

MAJOR HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY AUG 23, 2018...1100 HST

WTPA32 PHFO 232043
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
 
...EYE OF LANE PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AS THE DANGEROUS
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 157.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 157.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion
is expected to begin today. A turn toward the west is expected
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously
close to portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lane remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, but Lane is expected to remain a
hurricane as it draws closer to the islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

NOAA Buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the Big Island
reported a peak wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) as the northwest eyewall
of Lane passed over. The buoy is now reporting light winds in the
eye of the hurricane.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over
portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions
expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess
of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Nearly 20 inches of rain has
already fallen on portions of the Big Island.
 
SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane  will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 
 









  

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 23, 2018...0426 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by (NHC)
972 
AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 
04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a 
very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting convection at 
this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 52W
from 05N-20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is 
spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic. 
Scattered showers are noted south of 10N where the wave meets the 
ITCZ.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 20N
to north Colombia. It is moving westward at 20 kt. No significant
convection is observed within the wave at this time.

A tropical wave has its axis along 88W south of 19N, moving westward
near 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
12N17W to 08N22W to 10N40W to 09N51W. The ITCZ axis begins at 
09N53W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 07W-
17W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 180 nm either 
side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from 31N80W to 29N83W. A
stationary front continues to 27N90W to 29N95W. A pre-frontal 
trough extends from N Florida near 29N82W to the NE Gulf near 
26N86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of 
the pre-frontal trough. A 1018 mb high is located over the
northwest Gulf near 25N95W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over
the Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N between 93W-96W. The present 
pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout,
with a windshift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, an
upper level high centered over Texas near 32N99W is producing NE 
upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect 
the front to become quasi-stationary until Fri and dissipate on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the
Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The low is producing scattered showers
near the upper low center and is enhancing convection over the
SW Caribbean due to upper level diffluence. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to
include Panama and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are 
over the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 61W-68W. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of winds through the upcoming weekend
along the coast of NE Colombia and W Venezuela with seas building to
9 ft. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A cold front is off the coast of N
Florida from 32N79W to 31N80W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-32N west of 75W. Scattered showers are over
the west Atlantic from 25N-29N between 65W-72W due to an upper
level low centered near 26N72W. A surface trough extends over the
central Atlantic from 27N57W to 19N58W. Scattered showers are 
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1024 mb high is analyzed near 37N51W.
Saharan dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in 
previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color 
dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non-existent
across the eastern and central Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now! 

FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA

FLC086-231930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0041.180823T1736Z-180823T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
136 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
North central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hialeah, Miami Gardens, Doral, Miami Lakes and Hialeah Gardens. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2593 8033 2593 8021 2582 8029 2578 8032
2578 8038

Local Radar

LANE DRENCHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CENTER WILL STAY OFF SHORE...AUG 23, 2018...


WTPA32 PHFO 231445
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
 
...LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 157.4 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and little change in forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the north is anticipated tonight and Friday, as
Lane's forward motion slows. A turn toward the west is expected on
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over
the portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws
closer to the islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). NOAA buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the
Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h)
and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today,
with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday
night.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant
and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
Over 12 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big
Island.
 
SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane  will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 FORECAST TRACK AND WIND FIELD RADIUS
 PRESENT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD RADIUS
 ENHANCE COLOR SATELLITE AND RADAR
 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
 RADAR IMAGE
 LATEST GUIDANCE MODELS
 PREVIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS
 GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL
 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 23, 2018... 1036 AM EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY NHC
464 
AXNT20 KNHC 231201
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 AM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 
07N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within 
a very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting convection 
at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 51W
from 06N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is 
spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic. 
Scattered showers are noted south of 10N where the wave meets the 
monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 71W 
south of 20N to well inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 
10-15 kt. No significant convection is observed within this wave 
at this time. 

A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 85W from 05N- 
20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
14N17W to 08N33W to 10N40W to 09N52W. The ITCZ axis begins at 
09N52W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N59W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between
15W-21W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 120 nm 
either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from 31N82W to 27N90W to
29N95W. A pre-frontal trough extends from N Florida near 30N81W to
the NE Gulf near 26N87W. widely scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the pre-frontal trough. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N
between 93W-96W. The present pressure gradient across the gulf 
supports light winds throughout, with a windshift along the 
frontal system. In the upper levels an upper level high centered
over Texas near 32N99W is producing NE upper level winds over the
Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect for the front to become 
quasi-stationary until Fri and dissipate on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level trough extends from
eastern Cuba southwestward to just east of northeastern Honduras.
Water vapor imagery indicates plentiful moisture along and to the
northwest of this trough, and it is where scattered showers are 
occurring. Scattered showers are also occurring over the southwestern
Caribbean south of 12N between 80W-85W due to the interaction of a
tropical wave, low-level wind speed convergence, and the eastern 
segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that stretches east-
northeastward to the far southwestern Caribbean along 09N.

A slighter tighter pressure gradient behind the tropical wave 
along 82W will help induce strong to near gale force northeast to
east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean waters off the 
coast of Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela overnight. The
strong trades are forecast to reach northward to 15N. Moderate to
fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Fri, as little 
overall changes are expected with the present synoptic set-up 
through that period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A surface trough is analyzed over the W
Atlantic from 29N67W to 24N71W. Scattered showers are within 180
nm of the trough. Another trough extends over the central Atlantic  
from 29N56W to 20N57W. Scattered showwers are within 120 nm of the
trough. A 1024 mb high is analyzed north near 36N53W. Saharan 
dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in previous 
days, is noted mainly east of about 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust 
imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non- existent 
across the eastern and central Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Still monitoring the African coast and central Atlantic into next
week.  I don't see much chance for development there with are this
African dust in the area.  However, I will continue to monitor all
areas...RTW